Winnipeg vs. Ottawa NHL Arbitrage Alert (ROI: 81.5%)
Arbitrage bet on Winnipeg Jets vs Ottawa Senators: Bet 1 (Under 6.5 goals) at +185, Bet 2 (Over 6.5 goals) at +400; potential profit but risks include inconsistent rules, high odds discrepancies, and market availability. Verify factors to ensure the opportunity.
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the NHL game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Ottawa Senators scheduled on December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of the bets to determine the viability of this opportunity within the realm of sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two opposing bets have been identified on the total goals market (Over/Under 6.5 goals) from two different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Under 6.5 goals
- Odds: +185 (American odds)
- Stake: $636.94
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Over 6.5 goals
- Odds: +400 (American odds)
- Stake: $363.06
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. Converting the odds to decimal format for calculation purposes:
- Bet 1 Decimal Odds: 2.85
- Bet 2 Decimal Odds: 5.00
Possible Outcomes and Returns
Outcome 1: Under 6.5 Goals
- Bet 1 Wins: $636.94 x 2.85 = $1,816.27
- Bet 2 Loses: -$363.06
- Total Return: $1,816.27 - $363.06 = $1,453.21
- Net Profit: $1,453.21 - $1,000 = $453.21
Outcome 2: Over 6.5 Goals
- Bet 2 Wins: $363.06 x 5.00 = $1,815.30
- Bet 1 Loses: -$636.94
- Total Return: $1,815.30 - $636.94 = $1,178.36
- Net Profit: $1,178.36 - $1,000 = $178.36
Discussion
The calculations indicate a potential profit in both scenarios, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. However, several factors need to be considered:
1. Inconsistent Betting Rules: Bookmakers may have different rules regarding the settlement of bets, especially concerning overtime and shootouts. If one bookmaker includes overtime and the other does not, this could impact the outcome and risk both bets losing.
2. Odds Discrepancies: The odds provided are unusually high for an NHL totals market. Such discrepancies may indicate a mispricing or error, which could lead to bets being voided under the bookmakers' terms and conditions related to palpable errors in arbitrage betting.
3. Market Availability: Betting markets for events scheduled far in the future, like December 2024, are typically not available this early. This raises concerns about the accuracy of the event date or potential typos in the provided information.
4. Stake Limits and Bet Acceptance: High stakes on potentially mispriced odds may trigger bookmaker limits or bet rejections, affecting the feasibility of executing this arbitrage strategy in sports betting.
Conclusion
While the initial analysis suggests a profitable arbitrage opportunity, the discrepancies in odds and potential inconsistencies in betting rules present significant risks. It is essential to verify the accuracy of the odds, confirm the bookmakers' rules on market settlement, and consider the possibility of bets being voided due to errors. Without ensuring these factors align, this opportunity may not constitute a risk-free arbitrage bet within the context of sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and it is important to conduct thorough research and consider all factors before placing any bets.