Unusual Odds Discrepancy Alert in NCAAB Match (ROI: 58.6%)
(ROI: 58.6%) Arbitrage betting opportunity found in NCAAB game Dayton vs. La Salle on Dec 31, 2024. Bet on Dayton via FanDuel at -154, stake $961.33; La Salle via DraftKings at +4000, stake $38.67. Potential issues: unusual odds, potential palpable error, event timing. High risk.
Introduction
An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified involving the upcoming NCAAB basketball game between the Dayton Flyers and the La Salle Explorers, scheduled for December 31, 2024, at 2:04 pm. This memo provides an objective analysis of this potential opportunity, focusing on the moneyline market offered by two major sportsbooks: FanDuel and DraftKings.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage involves placing two opposing bets on the same event:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Dayton Flyers to win
- Odds: -154 (American odds)
- Stake: $961.33
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: La Salle Explorers to win
- Odds: +4000 (American odds)
- Stake: $38.67
To assess the potential returns, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- Dayton Flyers Odds (-154): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 154) ≈ 1.649
- La Salle Explorers Odds (+4000): Decimal Odds = 1 + (4000 / 100) = 41.00
Calculating potential payouts:
If Dayton wins:
- Return: $961.33 × 1.649 ≈ $1,586.32
- Net Profit: $1,586.32 - $1,000 (total stake) = $586.32
If La Salle wins:
- Return: $38.67 × 41.00 = $1,585.47
- Net Profit: $1,585.47 - $1,000 (total stake) = $585.47
Discussion
At first glance, this scenario appears to offer a risk-free profit, a hallmark of successful arbitrage betting in sports betting. However, several factors raise concerns about the validity and risk associated with this opportunity:
Unusual Odds Discrepancy: The odds for La Salle Explorers at +4000 are significantly higher than typical for a moneyline bet in NCAAB games. Normally, if one team is favored at -154, the underdog would have odds around +130 to +140, not +4000. This significant discrepancy suggests a possible error in the posted odds.
Potential Palpable Error: Sportsbooks often have policies allowing them to void bets placed on odds that resulted from an obvious mistake, known as a palpable error. The unusually high +4000 odds may be subject to cancellation once identified, posing a substantial risk to this arbitrage betting strategy.
Event Timing: The event date is over a year away, which is atypical for standard moneyline markets in sports betting. Odds and market conditions can change dramatically over such a long period, increasing the uncertainty and risk of bets being voided or altered.
Market Verification: It's crucial to confirm that both bets are on the exact same market and event. There is a possibility that one of the bets pertains to a different market, such as a special prop bet or future, which would invalidate the arbitrage opportunity.
Conclusion
While the initial calculations suggest a guaranteed profit through arbitrage betting, the practical risks associated with this particular opportunity are significant. The discrepancies in odds, the high likelihood of a palpable error, and the unusual timing of the event introduce substantial uncertainties. Therefore, this situation does not represent a valid or risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity. Caution and thorough due diligence are advised when engaging in sports betting strategies, especially in cases presenting unusually favorable odds.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only concerning sports betting and arbitrage betting. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Betting involves significant risk, and individuals should carefully consider their actions and, if necessary, seek advice from a professional advisor.