Unsure NFL Third Quarter Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 49.1%)
Introduction
A recent sports betting opportunity has emerged involving the NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals, scheduled for December 28, 2024. The focus is on the third quarter point spread market, where there is a potential arbitrage betting situation due to differing odds offered by two bookmakers.
Analysis
Bookmaker DraftKings is offering odds of -110 on the Denver Broncos with a -3.5 point spread for the third quarter. This means that to win, the Broncos must outscore the Bengals by at least 4 points in the third quarter. A stake of $780.79 on this bet at odds of -110 (decimal odds of 1.9091) would potentially return $1,490.60, resulting in a profit of $709.81.
Conversely, FanDuel is offering odds on the Cincinnati Bengals with a +3.5 point spread for the third quarter. With a stake of $219.21, the potential payout is $580, which implies decimal odds of approximately 2.645. For this bet to win, the Bengals must not lose the third quarter by more than 3 points.
Discussion
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000. If the Broncos win the third quarter by 4 or more points, the bet on DraftKings would yield a profit, while the bet on FanDuel would result in the loss of the stake. The net profit in this scenario would be approximately $490.60.
If the Broncos fail to cover the -3.5 point spread—meaning they win by 3 or fewer points, tie, or lose the third quarter—the bet on FanDuel would yield a profit, while the bet on DraftKings would result in the loss of the stake. The net loss in this scenario would be approximately $420.
Conclusion
Based on the current stakes and odds, this betting situation does not constitute a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. There is a potential for significant loss if the Broncos do not cover the spread. To achieve a true arbitrage, the stakes would need to be adjusted to balance the potential payouts, ensuring a profit regardless of the outcome.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly and consider the risks involved before placing any bets.