Uncover Trae Young Assists Betting Pitfalls (ROI: 12.4%)
Introduction
A fresh analysis has emerged regarding a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market, specifically concerning Trae Young's assists in an upcoming game. This memo aims to objectively dissect the details of this betting scenario to inform your betting strategies.
Analysis of the Bet
The proposed arbitrage involves two bets placed on Trae Young's assists:
Bet 1 (FanDuel):
- Market: Player Assists
- Participant: Trae Young
- Outcome: Over 15.5 assists
- Odds: +130 (Decimal odds: 2.30)
- Stake: $488.89
Bet 2 (DraftKings):
- Market: Player Assists
- Participant: Trae Young
- Outcome: Under 15.5 assists
- Odds: -120 (Decimal odds: 1.83)
- Stake: $511.11
At first glance, the disparity in odds and stakes suggests a possible arbitrage situation where a profit could be secured regardless of the game's outcome.
Calculating Potential Outcomes
Scenario 1: Trae Young Records 16 or More Assists (Over 15.5 Wins)
- Bet 1 Winnings: $488.89 x 2.30 = $1,124.45
- Bet 2 Loss: -$511.11
- Net Profit: $1,124.45 - $511.11 - $488.89 = $124.45
Scenario 2: Trae Young Records 15 or Fewer Assists (Under 15.5 Wins)
- Bet 2 Winnings: $511.11 x 1.83 = $934.44
- Bet 1 Loss: -$488.89
- Net Loss: $934.44 - $488.89 - $511.11 = -$65.56
The calculations indicate a profit in one scenario and a loss in the other, highlighting that the bet is not risk-free as initially perceived.
Discussion of Implications
To achieve a true arbitrage—eliminating risk—the stakes must be adjusted so that potential payouts are equal in both scenarios.
Adjusted Stakes for Risk-Free Arbitrage
Using the formula for arbitrage stake distribution:
- Total Arbitrage Percentage: (1 / 2.30) + (1 / 1.83) ≈ 0.4348 + 0.5464 = 0.9812
- Proportion for Over 15.5: (1 / 2.30) / 0.9812 ≈ 44.31%
- Proportion for Under 15.5: (1 / 1.83) / 0.9812 ≈ 55.69%
Adjusted Stakes:
- Stake on Over 15.5: 44.31% of $1,000 = $443.10
- Stake on Under 15.5: 55.69% of $1,000 = $556.90
Recalculated Outcomes:
Scenario 1 (Over Wins): $443.10 x 2.30 - $556.90 = $462.99 - $556.90 = -$93.91
Scenario 2 (Under Wins): $556.90 x 1.83 - $443.10 = $1,019.13 - $443.10 = $576.03
However, this adjustment still doesn't yield equal payouts, indicating inherent risk remains.
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Considerations
- Odds Accuracy: An assists line of 15.5 for Trae Young is unusually high, as he averages around 9-10 assists per game. This discrepancy may be due to a data entry error by the bookmaker.
- Palpable Error (Palp): Bookmakers reserve the right to void bets in case of obvious mistakes. If an error is identified, one side of the bet may be canceled, leaving the other exposed.
- Bookmaker Policies: Some platforms prohibit arbitrage betting and may impose restrictions on accounts engaging in such practices.
- Player Availability: Unforeseen circumstances like player injuries or rest could void bets, impacting the arbitrage strategy.
Conclusion
While the initial analysis suggested a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting on Trae Young's assists, further examination reveals that the bet, as it stands, carries risk. Adjusting stakes could theoretically create an arbitrage; however, discrepancies in odds and potential bookmaker policies introduce variables that could affect the outcome. It's crucial to verify the accuracy of the betting lines and understand the terms and conditions of each bookmaker before proceeding.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Betting involves risk, and it's important to gamble responsibly and be aware of the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.