UCLA vs. Gonzaga NCAAB Arbitrage Bet Opportunity (ROI: 9.9%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the world of sports betting for the upcoming NCAAB game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the provided betting options to assess the feasibility of a risk-free profit through arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two different bookmakers are offering contrasting odds on the same betting market, which presents an opportunity for arbitrage.
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Totals
Bet Type: Under 128.5 points
Odds: +190
Stake: $378.91
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Totals
Bet Type: Over 128.5 points
Odds: -130
Stake: $621.09
To determine if this is a valid arbitrage opportunity, we'll calculate the potential returns for each possible outcome.
Converting American Odds to Decimal Odds:
Bet 1 (FanDuel - Under 128.5 at +190):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (Positive Odds / 100) = 1 + (190 / 100) = 2.90
Bet 2 (BetMGM - Over 128.5 at -130):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / Absolute Value of Negative Odds) = 1 + (100 / 130) ≈ 1.769
Calculating Potential Returns:
Outcome A - Total Points Under 128.5:
Bet 1 wins: $378.91 x 2.90 = $1,098.84
Bet 2 loses: -$621.09
Total Return: $1,098.84 - $621.09 = $477.75
Outcome B - Total Points Over 128.5:
Bet 1 loses: -$378.91
Bet 2 wins: $621.09 x 1.769 = $1,098.84
Total Return: $1,098.84 - $378.91 = $719.93
Total Stake: $378.91 + $621.09 = $1,000
Net Profit in Either Outcome: Total Return - Total Stake = $1,098.84 - $1,000 = $98.84
Discussion
The calculations suggest that regardless of whether the game total is over or under 128.5 points, there is a potential profit of $98.84 on a total stake of $1,000. This arises from the difference in odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same market, which is the essence of arbitrage betting in sports betting.
Key considerations include:
- Coverage of All Outcomes: Since the total points in a basketball game cannot be exactly 128.5, the outcomes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, ensuring that one of the bets will win.
- Odds Stability: Odds can fluctuate rapidly in sports betting markets. It is crucial to place both bets simultaneously to lock in the stated odds and ensure the arbitrage opportunity remains valid.
- Bookmaker Terms: Different bookmakers may have varying rules regarding bet settlement, especially concerning overtime and potential voided bets due to cancellations or postponements. Verifying these terms is essential.
- Stake Limitations: Bookmakers may impose limits on maximum stakes for certain bets or markets, which could affect the ability to place the necessary amounts.
- Account Management: Engaging in arbitrage betting may lead to scrutiny from bookmakers, potentially resulting in account restrictions or limitations.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the provided betting scenario presents a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. By placing the calculated stakes on the contrasting odds from FanDuel and BetMGM, there is a possibility of securing a profit of $98.84, regardless of the game's total points outcome. It is important to approach such opportunities with careful consideration of all variables and potential risks involved.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution. Always ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.