UCLA vs Gonzaga Betting Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 9.1%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market, specifically involving the upcoming college basketball game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis explores the details of this opportunity, focusing on the betting lines offered by two bookmakers: FanDuel and DraftKings.
Bet Details
Event: UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Date: December 28, 2024
Market Type: Alternate Team Totals (Team-specific total points over/under)
Middle Opportunity: Not applicable in this case
Analysis
The betting opportunity involves placing two opposing bets on the same market but with different bookmakers, aiming to leverage the odds discrepancy for a potential profit. The details of the two bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Outcome: Over 71.5 points for UCLA Bruins
Odds: +140 (Decimal odds: 2.40)
Stake: $454.55
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Outcome: Under 71.5 points for UCLA Bruins
Odds: +100 (Decimal odds: 2.00)
Stake: $545.45
By covering both outcomes—UCLA scoring over 71.5 points and under 71.5 points—the bettor ensures that one of the bets will result in a win. The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.
Calculations
To assess the profitability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it's essential to calculate the potential returns and profits for each possible outcome.
Scenario 1: UCLA Scores Over 71.5 Points
- Bet 1 Wins: Return = $454.55 x 2.40 = $1,090.92
Profit from Bet 1 = $1,090.92 - $454.55 = $636.37
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss = -$545.45
- Net Profit: $636.37 - $545.45 = $90.92
Scenario 2: UCLA Scores Under 71.5 Points
- Bet 2 Wins: Return = $545.45 x 2.00 = $1,090.90
Profit from Bet 2 = $1,090.90 - $545.45 = $545.45
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss = -$454.55
- Net Profit: $545.45 - $454.55 = $90.90
In both scenarios, the bettor stands to make a net profit of approximately $90.90 on an initial total stake of $1,000, which represents a return on investment (ROI) of about 9.09%.
Discussion
The calculations indicate a potential arbitrage betting opportunity that could yield a profit regardless of the game's outcome. This arises due to differences in the odds provided by FanDuel and DraftKings on the same betting market. Such discrepancies can occur in sports betting, particularly in markets like alternate team totals.
Several factors should be carefully considered:
Market Consistency: It is crucial to confirm that both bets are placed on identical markets, with both bookmakers offering bets on the UCLA Bruins' total points over/under at 71.5.
Betting Rules and Regulations: Understanding the specific rules of each bookmaker is essential. This includes whether the points total includes overtime and how any potential voids or cancellations are handled.
Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly, especially in the lead-up to a game. Executing both bets simultaneously can help lock in the odds and avoid discrepancies that could affect the arbitrage.
Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on the maximum stake allowed for certain bets. Verifying that the desired stake amounts can be placed without restrictions is necessary.
Legal Considerations: Ensuring that arbitrage betting is permitted in the relevant jurisdiction and that all activities comply with local laws and regulations is important.
Conclusion
This analysis identifies a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market, offering an estimated profit of approximately $90.90 on a $1,000 total stake. The opportunity arises from differing odds on the same market between two bookmakers. Careful consideration of the factors discussed is crucial to validate the opportunity and execute the bets effectively.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Market conditions and bookmaker rules can change rapidly, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution when engaging in sports betting or arbitrage betting activities.