UCLA vs Gonzaga Betting Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 11.6%)

Introduction

A recent observation has identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market concerning the upcoming NCAAB game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs scheduled for December 28, 2024. The focus is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs' team total points over/under 75.5, with differing odds provided by two major sportsbooks.

Analysis

The opportunity arises from placing two contrasting bets:

• Bet 1: Wager on Gonzaga Bulldogs scoring over 75.5 points at FanDuel with odds of +145, staking $455.56.
• Bet 2: Wager on Gonzaga Bulldogs scoring under 75.5 points at DraftKings with odds of -105, staking $544.44.

These bets cover all possible outcomes of the team's scoring performance, allowing for a comprehensive financial analysis.

Discussion

Scenario 1: Gonzaga Scores Over 75.5 Points

Bet 1 Wins: The potential return is calculated as follows:

Total Payout = Stake × (1 + (Odds/100))
Total Payout = $455.56 × (1 + (145/100))
Total Payout = $455.56 × 2.45 = $1,116.11

Bet 2 Loses: The stake of $544.44 is forfeited.

Net Profit:
Net Profit = Total Winnings - Total Stakes
Net Profit = $1,116.11 - ($455.56 + $544.44)
Net Profit = $1,116.11 - $1,000 = $116.11

Scenario 2: Gonzaga Scores Under 75.5 Points

Bet 2 Wins: The negative odds are converted to decimal odds:

Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / |Odds|)
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 105) ≈ 1.9524

Total Payout = Stake × Decimal Odds
Total Payout = $544.44 × 1.9524 ≈ $1,062.96

Bet 1 Loses: The stake of $455.56 is forfeited.

Net Profit:
Net Profit = Total Winnings - Total Stakes
Net Profit = $1,062.96 - ($544.44 + $455.56)
Net Profit = $1,062.96 - $1,000 = $62.96

Key Considerations:

• Market Consistency: Both bets are on the same market, ensuring the outcome affects both bets equally.
• Overtime Inclusion: Typically, team total points include overtime. Verification with both sportsbooks is advised to confirm this.
• Betting Limits: Ensuring both sportsbooks accept the proposed stakes is crucial, as limits may vary.
• Terms and Conditions: Reviewing each sportsbook's rules can mitigate potential discrepancies in bet settlement.

Conclusion

The discrepancy in odds between the two sportsbooks creates a situation where, based on the calculations, a positive net profit is attainable regardless of the game's outcome. This exemplifies how arbitrage betting can be utilized to identify risk-neutral opportunities in sports betting markets.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise caution and consider consulting with a professional before engaging in any betting activities.