UCLA vs Gonzaga Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 9.1%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity in sports betting has emerged involving the upcoming NCAAB game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis explores a potential arbitrage betting scenario based on the provided data.

Analysis

Two bookmakers are offering differing odds on the moneyline market for this game:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Selection: UCLA Bruins
• Odds: +200 (American odds)
• Stake: $363.64

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Selection: Gonzaga Bulldogs
• Odds: -140 (American odds)
• Stake: $636.36

To assess the arbitrage potential, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

• UCLA Bruins (+200): Decimal Odds = 3.00
• Gonzaga Bulldogs (-140): Decimal Odds ≈ 1.71

The implied probabilities are calculated:

• UCLA Bruins: 1 / 3.00 ≈ 33.33%
• Gonzaga Bulldogs: 1 / 1.71 ≈ 58.48%

The total implied probability is approximately 91.81%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

Discussion

The total stake across both bets is $1,000.00. The potential payouts are:

• If UCLA Bruins win: $363.64 x 3.00 = $1,090.92
• If Gonzaga Bulldogs win: $636.36 x 1.71 ≈ $1,090.19

The potential profits are calculated by subtracting the total stake from each potential payout:

• UCLA Bruins win: $1,090.92 - $1,000.00 = $90.92
• Gonzaga Bulldogs win: $1,090.19 - $1,000.00 = $90.19

This scenario suggests a chance to secure a profit of approximately $90 regardless of the game's outcome, assuming the bets are accepted without issues.

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Conclusion

By leveraging the differing odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM on the moneyline market for the UCLA vs. Gonzaga game, there appears to be an opportunity for an arbitrage bet. This analysis illustrates how the potential exists to make a consistent profit due to the discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Betting involves risks, and it's important to consider all factors and consult with a professional advisor before making any wagering decisions.