UCLA vs. Gonzaga: Arbitrage Betting Opportunity (ROI: 9.5%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving the NCAA Men's Basketball game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 4:06 pm. This involves an arbitrage betting scenario where bets are placed on both the over and under of the same team total points, potentially leading to a profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Analysis

Two bets have been identified for this arbitrage opportunity:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Team Totals
• Bet Type: Over 65.5 points on UCLA Bruins
• Odds: -180 (American odds)
• Stake: $704.02

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Alternate Team Totals
• Bet Type: Under 65.5 points on UCLA Bruins
• Odds: +270 (American odds)
• Stake: $295.98

Calculations were performed to determine the potential returns and profits:

Bet 1:

• Decimal Odds: 1 + (100 / 180) = 1.5556
• Potential Return: $704.02 * 1.5556 = $1,095.27
• Potential Profit: $1,095.27 - $704.02 = $391.25

Bet 2:

• Decimal Odds: (270 / 100) + 1 = 3.7
• Potential Return: $295.98 * 3.7 = $1,095.13
• Potential Profit: $1,095.13 - $295.98 = $799.15

Discussion

By placing these two bets, the total stake amounts to $1,000.00. There are two possible outcomes:

Outcome 1: UCLA scores over 65.5 points

• Bet 1 wins with a profit of $391.25.
• Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of $295.98.
• Net Profit: $391.25 - $295.98 = $95.27.

Outcome 2: UCLA scores under 65.5 points

• Bet 2 wins with a profit of $799.15.
• Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of $704.02.
• Net Profit: $799.15 - $704.02 = $95.13.

This setup suggests a potential profit of approximately $95 regardless of the game's outcome, illustrating a classic arbitrage betting scenario. Both bets are placed on the same market and point line but on opposite outcomes, exploiting the odds discrepancy between the two bookmakers.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a possible arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAA basketball game. By carefully calculating stakes and understanding the odds, bettors may identify situations where a profit is possible irrespective of the event's result. It is important to consider factors such as bet acceptance, potential changes in odds, and the terms and conditions of each bookmaker before proceeding.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution when engaging in sports betting activities.