TCU vs Louisiana NCAA Football Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 20.4%)
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting for the upcoming NCAA Football game between the TCU Horned Frogs (home) and the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (away) on December 28, 2024, at 2:25 PM. This memo provides a detailed examination of this betting scenario involving alternate point spreads.
Analysis
The event in question presents two bets from different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: TCU Horned Frogs -34.5
- Odds: +192
- Stake: $412.47
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +34.5
- Odds: +105
- Stake: $587.53
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.00. The odds and stakes are structured so that one of the bets will win based on the game's margin of victory.
Discussion
The point spread is set at 34.5 points, creating two distinct outcomes:
- TCU wins by 35 points or more: Bet 1 wins, Bet 2 loses.
- TCU wins by fewer than 35 points or Louisiana wins: Bet 2 wins, Bet 1 loses.
Due to the half-point spread, there is no possibility of a tie, ensuring one bet wins while the other loses. Calculations for potential returns are as follows:
Scenario 1: TCU wins by 35 or more points
- Bet 1 Wins: $412.47 x 1.92 = $792.00 profit
- Total Return: $412.47 (stake) + $792.00 (profit) = $1,204.47
- Net Profit: $1,204.47 - $1,000.00 (total stakes) = $204.47
Scenario 2: TCU wins by fewer than 35 points or Louisiana wins
- Bet 2 Wins: $587.53 x 1.05 = $617.90 profit
- Total Return: $587.53 (stake) + $617.90 (profit) = $1,205.43
- Net Profit: $1,205.43 - $1,000.00 (total stakes) = $205.43
In both scenarios, there is a net profit of approximately $205. This situation arises from the differences in odds and point spreads offered by the two bookmakers, creating an arbitrage betting opportunity.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the combination of these two bets could potentially yield a profit regardless of the game's outcome. By exploiting the discrepancies in the sports betting markets for this NCAA Football game, there is an opportunity for arbitrage betting. This occurs when the odds provided by different bookmakers allow for a guaranteed return from all possible outcomes.
Disclaimer
This memo is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute advice on sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting carries financial risks, and individuals should make informed decisions based on their circumstances and in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.