Syracuse vs Bucknell NCAA First Half Moneyline Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 35.2%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAA basketball game between the Syracuse Orange and the Bucknell Bison, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 pm. This opportunity arises in the first half moneyline market, where discrepancies in odds offered by different bookmakers may allow for a risk-free profit. Below, we delve into the details of this arbitrage betting scenario.
Analysis
The arbitrage opportunity involves placing two opposing bets with two different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: First Half Moneyline
- Team: Bucknell Bison to lead at halftime
- Odds: +3300 (American odds), equivalent to 34.00 in decimal odds
- Stake: $39.77
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: First Half Moneyline
- Team: Syracuse Orange to lead at halftime
- Odds: -245 (American odds), equivalent to 1.408163 in decimal odds
- Stake: $960.23
Total Stake: $1,000 ($39.77 + $960.23)
The potential outcomes are as follows:
Scenario 1: Syracuse Leads at Halftime
- Winnings from Bet 2: $960.23 × 1.408163 ≈ $1,352.16
- Profit: $1,352.16 - $1,000 = $352.16
- Loss from Bet 1: $39.77
Scenario 2: Bucknell Leads at Halftime
- Winnings from Bet 1: $39.77 × 34.00 = $1,352.18
- Profit: $1,352.18 - $1,000 = $352.18
- Loss from Bet 2: $960.23
Scenario 3: Tie at Halftime
- Outcome: Both bets are voided (assuming standard bookmaker rules for ties)
- Stakes Returned: Total of $1,000
- Profit/Loss: $0 (no gain or loss)
Discussion
This arbitrage betting opportunity suggests a possible profit of approximately $352, regardless of which team leads at halftime, provided that the bets are accepted and honored by both bookmakers. The key factors contributing to this opportunity are the high odds offered for Bucknell Bison by BetMGM and the comparatively lower odds for Syracuse Orange by DraftKings.
Several important considerations should be taken into account:
- Market Consistency: It is crucial to confirm that both bets are placed on the identical market and that both bookmakers handle ties in the same manner. Typically, in the first half moneyline market, a tie results in bets being voided and stakes returned.
- Bookmaker Policies: Each bookmaker has specific terms regarding palpable errors, odds discrepancies, and bet cancellations. Extremely high odds, such as +3300, may be subject to scrutiny or cancellation if considered an error by the bookmaker.
- Event Timing: With the event over a year away, there is a risk of changes such as event rescheduling, team roster adjustments, or shifts in the betting market, which could affect the bets.
- Capital Allocation: Funds will be tied up for an extended period, potentially limiting liquidity and the ability to engage in other betting opportunities.
- Account Restrictions: Regular engagement in arbitrage betting can lead to account limitations or closures by bookmakers, as it may violate their terms of service.
Conclusion
In summary, this arbitrage opportunity between BetMGM and DraftKings in the first half moneyline market for the Syracuse Orange vs. Bucknell Bison game presents a potential for a risk-free profit of approximately $352. By leveraging the discrepancies in odds offered by the two bookmakers, bettors might secure a profit regardless of the halftime leader, assuming all bets are accepted and honored.
However, it is important to thoroughly verify bookmaker rules regarding ties and potential bet cancellations, ensure that both bets are confirmed without errors, and consider the risks associated with the long time horizon of the event and potential bookmaker responses to arbitrage betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and there is no guarantee of profit. It is important to familiarize yourself with the terms and conditions of each bookmaker and to gamble responsibly. Always consider seeking advice from a professional financial advisor before making any investment or betting decisions.