Secure Profit: Tar Heels vs. Huskies Arbitrage Bet

Introduction

An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAAF game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 am. This opportunity involves placing bets on the total points market across two bookmakers: FanDuel and BetMGM.

Analysis

Bet Details:

FanDuel Bet:

• Market: Alternate Totals
• Bet: Over 59.5 points
• Odds: +104
• Stake: $513.13

BetMGM Bet:

• Market: Alternate Totals
• Bet: Under 59.5 points
• Odds: +115
• Stake: $486.87

The total stakes across both bets amount to $1,000 ($513.13 + $486.87).

Converting Odds to Decimal:

To perform precise calculations, American odds are converted to decimal odds:

• FanDuel Odds (+104): Decimal Odds = (104/100) + 1 = 2.04
• BetMGM Odds (+115): Decimal Odds = (115/100) + 1 = 2.15

Calculating Potential Outcomes:

Scenario 1: Total Points Over 59.5

• Winnings from FanDuel Bet: $513.13 × (2.04 - 1) = $533.66
• Loss from BetMGM Bet: -$486.87
• Net Profit: $533.66 - $486.87 = $46.79

Scenario 2: Total Points Under 59.5

• Winnings from BetMGM Bet: $486.87 × (2.15 - 1) = $559.90
• Loss from FanDuel Bet: -$513.13
• Net Profit: $559.90 - $513.13 = $46.77

In both scenarios, a net profit of approximately $46.77 to $46.79 is realized on a total stake of $1,000, indicating a return of approximately 2.68%.

Arbitrage Percentage Calculation:

The arbitrage percentage is calculated using the formula:

Arbitrage Percentage = (1 / Decimal Odds of Outcome 1 + 1 / Decimal Odds of Outcome 2) × 100%

Substituting the values:

• (1 / 2.04) + (1 / 2.15) = 0.4902 + 0.4651 = 0.9553
• Arbitrage Percentage = 95.53%

Since the arbitrage percentage is less than 100%, this confirms the existence of an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.

Discussion

This arbitrage opportunity in sports betting provides a chance to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome. By placing opposing bets on the same market (total points over and under 59.5) across two different bookmakers with differing odds, a profit margin is established due to the discrepancy in odds.

It is important to ensure that both bets are placed simultaneously and that both bookmakers have the same market conditions and rules, including how overtime is handled in the total points calculation. Additionally, potential risks such as bet cancellation due to market errors or changes in odds should be considered.

Conclusion

The analysis confirms the presence of an arbitrage betting opportunity in the NCAAF game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies. By carefully placing the specified bets at FanDuel and BetMGM, a profit of approximately $46.78 can be secured on a $1,000 total stake, yielding a return of about 2.68%.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their actions before engaging in any betting activities.