Secure Profit on Buffaloes vs Cougars Spread (ROI: 119.1%)
Arbitrage opportunity for Colorado Buffaloes vs. BYU Cougars on Dec 28, 2024: Bet $561.80 on Buffaloes +22.5 at +290 with DraftKings, $438.20 on Cougars -22.5 at +400 with BetMGM. Potential profit is approximately $1,191. Watch for event changes, bookmaker rules, and stake limits.
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming college football game between the Colorado Buffaloes and the BYU Cougars scheduled for December 28, 2024. This memo details the analysis of this potential arbitrage bet, providing an objective overview for bettors interested in exploring opportunities in arbitrage betting.
Analysis
The arbitrage involves placing two opposing bets on the same game with different bookmakers and varying odds in the point spread market. The details are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Spread
- Bet: Colorado Buffaloes +22.5 points
- Odds: +290 (Decimal Odds: 3.90)
- Stake: $561.80
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Standard Spread
- Bet: BYU Cougars -22.5 points
- Odds: +400 (Decimal Odds: 5.00)
- Stake: $438.20
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The potential returns are calculated based on each bet's odds and stake.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Bet 1: Colorado Buffaloes +22.5 at +290
- Potential Profit: $561.80 × 2.90 = $1,629.22
- Total Return (Including Stake): $561.80 + $1,629.22 = $2,191.02
Bet 2: BYU Cougars -22.5 at +400
- Potential Profit: $438.20 × 4.00 = $1,752.80
- Total Return (Including Stake): $438.20 + $1,752.80 = $2,191.00
Discussion
The point spread is set at 22.5 points, eliminating the possibility of a tie (push) due to the half-point. The game will result in one of two outcomes:
- The Colorado Buffaloes lose by 22 points or fewer, or win the game.
- The BYU Cougars win by 23 points or more.
Outcome 1: Colorado Buffaloes Cover the Spread (+22.5)
- Bet 1 Wins: Payout of $2,191.02
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $438.20
- Net Profit: $2,191.02 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = $1,191.02
Outcome 2: BYU Cougars Cover the Spread (-22.5)
- Bet 2 Wins: Payout of $2,191.00
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $561.80
- Net Profit: $2,191.00 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = $1,191.00
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $1,191, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Considerations for bettors:
- Event Timing: Since the game is over a year away, there is a possibility of schedule changes or cancellations. Bettors should monitor any updates regarding the event.
- Bookmaker Policies: Verify that both bookmakers have consistent rules for settling point spread bets to avoid discrepancies.
- Stake Limits: Ensure that the proposed stakes are within the allowable limits set by the bookmakers to prevent bet rejections.
- Account Management: Be aware that frequent arbitrage betting may lead to increased scrutiny or potential restrictions from bookmakers.
Conclusion
This analysis outlines a potential arbitrage betting opportunity where, by placing opposing bets on the point spread with different bookmakers, a bettor could secure a net profit of approximately $1,191 regardless of the game's outcome. This is achieved through strategic betting in the sports betting market, leveraging differences in odds and spreads between bookmakers.
Bettors should carefully consider all factors, including event timing, bookmaker policies, and personal risk tolerance, before engaging in this arbitrage betting opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any betting decisions.