Secure Arbitrage: Nebraska vs. Boston College Football Betting Opportunity (ROI: 25.0%)
Introduction
This live update memo provides an objective analysis of a newly identified arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market. The event in focus is a National Collegiate Athletic Association Football (NCAAF) game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Boston College Eagles, scheduled for December 28, 2024. The arbitrage arises from discrepancies in the odds offered by two different bookmakers on the alternative totals market for total points over/under 26.5.
Analysis of the Betting Data
The arbitrage opportunity involves two bets placed on opposite outcomes:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Over 26.5 points
- Odds: -200 (American odds)
- Stake: $833.33
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Under 26.5 points
- Odds: +650 (American odds)
- Stake: $166.67
The total amount staked is $1,000 ($833.33 on Bet 1 and $166.67 on Bet 2). To facilitate analysis, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- Bet 1 Decimal Odds: (100 / 200) + 1 = 1.5
- Bet 2 Decimal Odds: (650 / 100) + 1 = 7.5
Potential Outcomes and Calculations
The following scenarios examine the potential outcomes based on the final score:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 26.5
- Bet 1 Wins: Return = $833.33 × 1.5 = $1,250
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss = $166.67
- Net Profit: $1,250 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $250
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 26.5
- Bet 2 Wins: Return = $166.67 × 7.5 = $1,250
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss = $833.33
- Net Profit: $1,250 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $250
In both scenarios, the net profit is $250, indicating a potential arbitrage betting opportunity where profit is secured irrespective of the outcome.
Implied Probabilities and Arbitrage Validation
To further validate the arbitrage, the implied probabilities of both bets are calculated:
- Bet 1 Implied Probability: (1 / 1.5) × 100% = 66.67%
- Bet 2 Implied Probability: (1 / 7.5) × 100% = 13.33%
- Total Implied Probability: 66.67% + 13.33% = 80%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, which is a key indicator of an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting markets.
Discussion of Practical Considerations
While the numerical analysis suggests a viable arbitrage opportunity, several practical factors should be considered:
- Market Availability: Confirm that both bookmakers offer these specific odds concurrently and that the betting markets are active.
- Stake Limits: Be aware of maximum stake limits imposed by bookmakers, which could affect the ability to place the desired wager amounts.
- Odds Volatility: Odds may change rapidly; timing is critical to secure the odds quoted in the analysis.
- Bookmaker Policies: Review the terms and conditions of both bookmakers regarding arbitrage betting, as some may restrict or penalize such activities.
- Event Timing: The game is over a year away, which may increase the risk of event changes or cancellations.
Conclusion
The analysis identifies a potential arbitrage betting opportunity with a net profit of $250, regardless of the game's outcome. While mathematically sound, it's important to carefully evaluate all practical considerations before proceeding. Monitoring the sports betting market and staying informed about any changes related to the event is essential.
Disclaimer
This memo is intended for informational and educational purposes only regarding sports betting and arbitrage betting. It does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activity. Individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any decisions related to betting.