Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons Arbitrage Opportunity
Understanding the Bets
Event Details:
- Date and Time: December 26, 2024, at 10:10 PM
- Teams: Sacramento Kings (Home) vs. Detroit Pistons (Away)
- League: NBA
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Team Totals
- Outcome: Under 106.5 points for Detroit Pistons
- Odds (Price): +260
- Stake: $280.00
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Team Totals
- Outcome: Over 106.5 points for Detroit Pistons
- Odds (Price): -250
- Stake: $720.00
Calculating Potential Returns
Calculating the potential returns for each bet based on the possible outcomes is essential for understanding this arbitrage opportunity.
American Odds Conversion
- Positive Odds (+): Indicates potential profit on a $100 bet.
- Negative Odds (-): Indicates the amount needed to bet to win $100.
Total Stakes
Total Amount Wagered: $280 (Bet 1) + $720 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Scenario Analysis
Scenario 1: Detroit Pistons Score 106 Points or Fewer (Under 106.5)
Bet 1 Wins: Under 106.5 at +260
Profit Calculation: $280 × (260 ÷ 100) = $728
Total Return: $280 (Stake) + $728 (Profit) = $1,008
Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $720 Stake
Net Profit: $1,008 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $8
Scenario 2: Detroit Pistons Score 107 Points or More (Over 106.5)
Bet 2 Wins: Over 106.5 at -250
Profit Calculation: $720 × (100 ÷ 250) = $288
Total Return: $720 (Stake) + $288 (Profit) = $1,008
Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $280 Stake
Net Profit: $1,008 (Return) - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = $8
Summary of Outcomes
In both scenarios, the total return is $1,008 on a total stake of $1,000, resulting in a net profit of $8. This represents a 0.8% return on investment (ROI).
Risk Assessment
While the calculations suggest a risk-free profit, several factors could affect the outcome:
- Market Rules Consistency: Ensure both bookmakers include overtime in their team total markets to avoid discrepancies.
- Bet Acceptance and Limits: Verify that both bookmakers will accept the specified stakes without restrictions.
- Potential for Void Bets: Be aware of bookmakers' policies on bet cancellations due to errors or other factors.
- Game Postponement or Cancellation: Understand how each bookmaker handles bets for events that are postponed or canceled.
- Regulatory Considerations: Ensure compliance with local laws and regulations related to sports betting.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a valid arbitrage opportunity with a potential profit of $8 on a $1,000 total stake. It's important to consider all potential risks and verify all details before engaging in this opportunity. Thorough due diligence is essential to mitigate risks and ensure that all conditions align with expectations.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Always gamble responsibly and be aware of the terms and conditions set by bookmakers.