Risk-Free Profit on George Mason vs. Mt. St. Mary's Game (ROI: 26.2%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Basketball game between the George Mason Patriots (home team) and the Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers (away team), scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:00 PM. This analysis will objectively assess the details of the bets to determine if a risk-free profit is achievable through this sports betting strategy.
Analysis
The proposed arbitrage involves two bets placed on the same market—Alternate Totals—but with opposing outcomes at different bookmakers.
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 126.5 points
- Odds: +155
- Stake: $495.05
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 126.5 points
- Odds: +150
- Stake: $504.95
Total Stake: $495.05 (Bet 1) + $504.95 (Bet 2) = $1,000
To analyze the potential outcomes, we'll convert the American odds to decimal odds:
- Bet 1 Odds: (+155) → (155/100) + 1 = 2.55
- Bet 2 Odds: (+150) → (150/100) + 1 = 2.50
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 126.5
- Bet 1 wins: $495.05 x 2.55 = $1,262.38
- Bet 2 loses: -$504.95
- Net Profit: $1,262.38 - $1,000 = $262.38
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 126.5
- Bet 2 wins: $504.95 x 2.50 = $1,262.38
- Bet 1 loses: -$495.05
- Net Profit: $1,262.38 - $1,000 = $262.38
In both scenarios, the net profit is $262.38, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
The calculated net profit remains consistent regardless of the game's outcome due to the strategic placement of opposing bets on the same market with different bookmakers. This approach takes advantage of the variance in odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM. By covering all possible outcomes (over or under 126.5 points), the bettor can potentially secure a profit.
It's important to note that since basketball scores are whole numbers, the total points will either be above or below 126.5, eliminating the possibility of a tie or push in this market. This certainty strengthens the viability of the arbitrage opportunity.
However, several factors should be carefully considered:
- Market Rules: Ensure both bookmakers include overtime in their total points markets, as differing rules could impact the outcome.
- Bet Acceptance: Verify that both bookmakers will accept the specified stakes, as limits may apply.
- Odds Fluctuation: Odds can change rapidly; confirm that the odds remain as stated when placing the bets.
- Account Restrictions: Frequent arbitrage betting may lead to account limitations with some bookmakers.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that by placing these two bets with precise stakes and odds, there is a potential to secure a net profit of $262.38 through arbitrage betting. This opportunity arises from the disparity in odds between two bookmakers on the same event and market in sports betting. Careful execution is essential to account for any variables that could affect the outcome.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in arbitrage betting. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own discretion and responsibility.