By René Hunt in NHL — 27 Dec 2024

Risk-Free Profit on Connor Bedard's Shots on Goal Bet

Introduction

An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming sports event between the Buffalo Sabres and the Chicago Blackhawks. This analysis examines two opposing bets on Connor Bedard's shots on goal, providing insights into a potential arbitrage in the sports betting market.

Analysis of the Bets

The event in focus is the hockey game scheduled for December 27, 2024, featuring the Buffalo Sabres against the Chicago Blackhawks. The specific market is Connor Bedard's total shots on goal, with a line set at 2.5 shots.

Two different bookmakers offer opposing odds on this market:

Bet 1: Under 2.5 shots at FanDuel with odds of -106 (American), equivalent to 1.9434 (Decimal). The stake for this bet is $519.37.
Bet 2: Over 2.5 shots at BetMGM with odds of +110 (American), equivalent to 2.10 (Decimal). The stake for this bet is $480.63.

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.

Calculating Potential Outcomes

To assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it's essential to calculate the potential returns for each outcome.

Scenario 1: Under 2.5 Shots

If Connor Bedard records fewer than 2.5 shots:

Bet 1 Wins: The payout is $519.37 × 1.9434 ≈ $1,009.52.
Profit from Bet 1: $1,009.52 - $519.37 = $490.15.
Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $480.63.
Net Profit: $490.15 - $480.63 = $9.52.

Scenario 2: Over 2.5 Shots

If Connor Bedard records more than 2.5 shots:

Bet 2 Wins: The payout is $480.63 × 2.10 = $1,009.32.
Profit from Bet 2: $1,009.32 - $480.63 = $528.69.
Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $519.37.
Net Profit: $528.69 - $519.37 = $9.32.

In both scenarios, a positive net profit is realized, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.

Discussion of Implications

This analysis suggests that placing these two bets could result in a risk-free profit due to the discrepancy in odds offered by the two bookmakers. However, several factors need careful consideration:

Event Date Confirmation: The event is listed as December 27, 2024, which is unusually far in the future for player prop bets. It's advisable to verify the correct date, as it may be a typographical error.
Bookmaker Rules Alignment: Ensure that both FanDuel and BetMGM have consistent rules regarding player prop bets, particularly concerning player participation requirements and whether overtime counts towards the total shots.
Odds Verification: Odds can fluctuate rapidly in sports betting markets. It's important to confirm that the odds remain as specified before placing the bets.
Stake Acceptance: Both bookmakers must accept the specified stakes without any restrictions or limits that could affect the arbitrage calculation.
Potential Voiding of Bets: Be aware of the bookmakers' policies on palpable errors or market adjustments that could lead to bets being voided or altered.
Legal Considerations: Arbitrage betting should comply with all applicable laws and regulations in the relevant jurisdiction.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a possible arbitrage betting opportunity with a potential profit of approximately 0.93% to 0.95% on the total stakes. This stems from opposing odds offered by different bookmakers on the same market in the sports betting arena. While the calculations show a positive expected return, it's crucial to account for all associated risks and variables.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and it's important to conduct personal due diligence. No guarantees are made regarding the outcome of any bets or the accuracy of this information.