Potential Profit in Navy vs. Oklahoma 4th Quarter Bet
Introduction
A fresh arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged in the upcoming NCAAF matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners, scheduled for December 27, 2024, at 12:05 PM. This potential opportunity focuses on the 4th Quarter Moneyline market, where differing odds between two bookmakers present a possible scenario for arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two distinct bets have been identified for this sports betting opportunity:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Outcome: Navy Midshipmen to win the 4th quarter
- Odds: +150 (American odds)
- Stake: $424.95
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Outcome: Oklahoma Sooners to win the 4th quarter
- Odds: -118 (American odds)
- Stake: $575.05
To evaluate the potential returns, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- Navy Midshipmen: (+150) ⇒ (150/100) + 1 = 2.50
- Oklahoma Sooners: (-118) ⇒ (100/118) + 1 ≈ 1.8475
The total amount staked is $1,000 ($424.95 + $575.05).
Calculating potential returns for each outcome:
If the Navy Midshipmen win the 4th quarter:
- Return from Bet 1: $424.95 × 2.50 = $1,062.38
- Loss from Bet 2: -$575.05
- Net Profit: $1,062.38 - $1,000 = $62.38
If the Oklahoma Sooners win the 4th quarter:
- Return from Bet 2: $575.05 × 1.8475 = $1,062.38
- Loss from Bet 1: -$424.95
- Net Profit: $1,062.38 - $1,000 = $62.38
Discussion
The calculations indicate a potential for a risk-free profit of approximately $62.38 in this arbitrage betting scenario, regardless of which team wins the 4th quarter. This arises from the imbalance in odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same market.
However, it's important to consider the possibility of the 4th quarter ending in a tie. In college football, if both teams score the same number of points in a quarter, it results in a tie for that quarter.
Market Types and Implications:
- 2-Way Moneyline (No Tie Option): If the market is a 2-way moneyline, a tie typically results in a push, and stakes are refunded.
- 3-Way Moneyline (Tie Option Included): In a 3-way moneyline, a tie is a possible outcome, and if neither bet covers the tie, both bets could result in a loss.
Therefore, confirming whether both bets are placed in the same type of market is crucial. The presence of a tie option can significantly impact the arbitrage opportunity and the potential for profit or loss.
Conclusion
The identified arbitrage opportunity showcases how differing odds in sports betting markets can present a potential for profit. By placing the calculated stakes on the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners for the 4th Quarter Moneyline, there appears to be a scenario where a net profit is achievable, assuming that the market conditions are consistent and there is no tie in the 4th quarter.
Verifying the market rules with both bookmakers is essential to ensure that the bets are compatible and to fully understand the implications of a tie. Careful consideration of the terms and conditions can help in assessing the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to participate in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Individuals should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making any betting decisions.