Risk-Free Bet on Miami vs. Iowa State First Quarter (ROI: 10.0%)

Introduction

A recently identified arbitrage opportunity in sports betting has emerged for the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Iowa State Cyclones. This opportunity involves placing bets on the First Quarter Moneyline market across two different bookmakers, potentially securing a risk-free profit for bettors.

Analysis

The event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:35 PM, featuring the Miami Hurricanes (home team) against the Iowa State Cyclones (away team). The focus is on the First Quarter Moneyline market, where bettors wager on which team will lead at the end of the first quarter.

Bet Details:

• Bet 1: Placed with FanDuel on the Iowa State Cyclones to win the first quarter at odds of -380, with a stake of $870.62.
• Bet 2: Placed with DraftKings on the Miami Hurricanes to win the first quarter at odds of +750, with a stake of $129.38.

The total stake across both bets amounts to $1,000 ($870.62 + $129.38). The key to this arbitrage opportunity lies in the discrepancy between the odds offered by the two bookmakers.

Discussion

To assess the validity of this arbitrage opportunity, it's essential to consider all possible outcomes and their implications.

Scenario 1: Iowa State Cyclones Win the First Quarter

• Bet 1 Wins: The profit would be calculated as (Stake * 100) / Odds. This results in a profit of approximately $229.63, with a total return of $1,100.25.
• Bet 2 Loses: The stake of $129.38 is lost.
• Net Profit: The net profit is the total return minus the total stakes, resulting in approximately $100.25.

Scenario 2: Miami Hurricanes Win the First Quarter

• Bet 2 Wins: The profit would be (Stake * Odds) / 100, yielding a profit of $970.35 and a total return of $1,099.73.
• Bet 1 Loses: The stake of $870.62 is lost.
• Net Profit: The net profit is approximately $99.73.

Scenario 3: Tie at the End of the First Quarter

The critical factor in this scenario is how each bookmaker handles a tie in the First Quarter Moneyline market:

• If both bookmakers treat a tie as a push (refund): Both stakes are refunded, and there's no net loss or gain.
• If ties result in a loss: Both bets lose, resulting in a total loss of $1,000.

Implied Probabilities: Calculating the implied probabilities helps in understanding the value:

• Iowa State at -380: Implied probability of approximately 79.17%.
• Miami at +750: Implied probability of approximately 11.76%.
• Total Implied Probability: Approximately 90.93%, indicating the remaining percentage accounts for the possibility of a tie or the bookmaker’s margin.

Conclusion

The arbitrage opportunity appears valid, offering a potential net profit of around $100 on a total stake of $1,000, assuming that both bookmakers treat a tie as a push. Bettors could secure a profit regardless of which team wins the first quarter. However, the validity of this opportunity hinges on several critical factors.

Key Considerations:

• Tie Outcome Handling: It's essential to confirm how each bookmaker handles a tie in the First Quarter Moneyline market. The risk lies in the possibility that a tie could result in the loss of both bets.
• Market Consistency: Ensuring that both bets are placed on the identical market with the same terms is crucial to avoid discrepancies in bet settlement.
• Odds and Stake Confirmation: Before placing the bets, verifying that the odds are as stated and that the bookmakers will accept the proposed stake amounts is important.
• Bookmaker Rules: Reviewing each bookmaker's terms and conditions related to this specific market can prevent unexpected outcomes.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. The information provided is intended to offer a neutral examination of a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting. Bettors should conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any betting decisions.