Risk-Free Arbitrage in NCAAF Clash: Tar Heels vs. Huskies
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 AM. This analysis provides a detailed examination of the betting options available, focusing on alternate spreads offered by two bookmakers: FanDuel and BetMGM.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1: Placed with FanDuel on the North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 at odds of +116 (American odds), with a stake of $486.94.
Bet 2: Placed with BetMGM on the UConn Huskies -10.5 at odds of +105 (American odds), with a stake of $513.06.
Understanding the Bets:
The North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 bet will succeed if the Tar Heels either win the game outright or lose by 10 points or fewer. The UConn Huskies -10.5 bet will succeed if the Huskies win the game by 11 points or more. The half-point spreads eliminate the possibility of a tie, ensuring one bet wins while the other loses.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Bet 1 Potential Return:
Total Return = Stake + (Stake × (Odds / 100))
Total Return = $486.94 + ($486.94 × (116 / 100)) = $1,052.19
Bet 2 Potential Return:
Total Return = $513.06 + ($513.06 × (105 / 100)) = $1,051.77
Discussion
Potential Outcomes:
Scenario 1: If the North Carolina Tar Heels cover the spread (+10.5), Bet 1 wins, yielding a total return of $1,052.19. Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of the $513.06 stake. The net profit is calculated as Total Return from Bet 1 minus the Total Stakes:
Net Profit = $1,052.19 - ($486.94 + $513.06) = $52.19
Scenario 2: If the UConn Huskies cover the spread (-10.5), Bet 2 wins, yielding a total return of $1,051.77. Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of the $486.94 stake. The net profit is:
Net Profit = $1,051.77 - ($486.94 + $513.06) = $51.77
In both scenarios, the bettor stands to gain a net profit of approximately $51 to $52, regardless of the game's outcome.
Verification of Arbitrage Opportunity:
By calculating the implied probabilities of both bets and summing them, we can confirm the existence of an arbitrage opportunity.
Implied Probability for Bet 1:
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100) = 100 / (116 + 100) ≈ 46.3%
Implied Probability for Bet 2:
Implied Probability = 100 / (105 + 100) ≈ 48.78%
Total Implied Probability = 46.3% + 48.78% ≈ 95.08%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Considerations
Market Conditions: Odds can fluctuate rapidly in arbitrage betting. It's crucial to confirm the odds and ensure both bets are placed simultaneously to lock in the potential profit.
Bookmaker Policies: Different sportsbooks may have varying rules regarding bet settlement, maximum payouts, and market terms. Review the terms and conditions of both FanDuel and BetMGM to ensure compliance.
Operational Risks: Technical issues, bet rejections, or stake limitations may impact the execution of the arbitrage strategy. It's important to monitor both betting accounts to confirm that bets have been accepted as intended.
Legal and Regulatory Compliance: Ensure that placing these bets adheres to the legal regulations in your jurisdiction. Arbitrage betting is legal in many regions but may be restricted in others.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies. By placing the specified bets on the alternate spreads at the given odds, there is a possibility of securing a net profit regardless of the game's outcome. This opportunity arises due to the difference in odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM, with the total implied probability being less than 100%.
While the calculations suggest a positive outcome, it's essential to consider operational factors, bookmaker policies, and legal compliance to mitigate any risks associated with this sports betting strategy.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their actions based on their circumstances. No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy of this information, and no liability is accepted for any losses incurred.