Profiting on NCAA Basketball: Arbitrage on Total Points (ROI: 18.1%)

Introduction

A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAA basketball game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies and the North Carolina Central Eagles. This analysis examines the details of the wagers involved, focusing on the alternate total points market for the game scheduled on December 28, 2024, at 2:05 pm.

Analysis

The proposed arbitrage involves placing two opposing bets on the same total points line with different bookmakers:

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Bet: Under 173.5 points
Odds: +155 (American odds)
Stake: $463.16

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Bet: Over 173.5 points
Odds: +120 (American odds)
Stake: $536.84

To facilitate the analysis, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:

- Bet 1 Odds: +155 converts to 2.55
- Bet 2 Odds: +120 converts to 2.20

The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000 ($463.16 + $536.84).

There are two possible outcomes for the total points scored in the game:

1. Total points under 173.5 (173 points or fewer)
2. Total points over 173.5 (174 points or more)

Calculations for each scenario:

Scenario 1: Total Points Under 173.5
- Bet 1 wins: Payout = 2.55 * $463.16 = $1,180.06
- Profit from Bet 1: $1,180.06 - $463.16 = $716.90
- Bet 2 loses: Loss = $536.84
- Net Profit: $716.90 - $536.84 = $180.06

Scenario 2: Total Points Over 173.5
- Bet 2 wins: Payout = 2.20 * $536.84 = $1,180.06
- Profit from Bet 2: $1,180.06 - $536.84 = $643.22
- Bet 1 loses: Loss = $463.16
- Net Profit: $643.22 - $463.16 = $180.06

In both scenarios, the calculated net profit is $180.06 on a total stake of $1,000, resulting in a return on investment (ROI) of 18.006%.

Discussion

This arbitrage opportunity arises due to differing odds offered by two bookmakers on the same betting market. By wagering on both the over and under for the same total points line, the bettor covers all possible outcomes, theoretically securing a profit regardless of the game's result.

Key considerations for this arbitrage betting strategy include:

• Market Consistency: Ensuring that both bets are placed on identical markets with the same terms and conditions is crucial. Both wagers are on the alternate total points line of 173.5 points in an NCAA basketball game.
• Bookmaker Rules: It's important to verify that both FanDuel and BetMGM have consistent rules regarding over/under bets, including how overtime is handled and what happens in the event of a game postponement or cancellation.
• Odds Fluctuation: Sports betting odds can change rapidly. Placing both bets simultaneously can help mitigate the risk of odds moving unfavorably, which could affect the calculated profit.
• Betting Limits and Acceptance: Bookmakers may have limits on wager amounts or may not accept large bets. Confirming that the intended stakes are acceptable to both bookmakers is essential for executing the arbitrage.
• Legal and Ethical Considerations: While arbitrage betting is legal in many jurisdictions, it is advisable to review the terms of service of each bookmaker. Some may have policies that restrict or discourage arbitrage betting strategies.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that, under the given conditions, there is a potential arbitrage opportunity in the alternate totals market for the North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. North Carolina Central Eagles game. By carefully calculating the stakes and understanding the terms offered by each bookmaker, a bettor may secure a profit irrespective of the game's outcome.

However, factors such as bookmaker rules, market volatility, and betting limits play a significant role in the feasibility of this strategy. It is important to conduct thorough due diligence and remain aware of the inherent risks associated with sports betting and arbitrage betting activities.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risk, and individuals should engage in such activities responsibly and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.