Profiting on Columbia vs Fairfield: A Smart NCAA Bet (ROI: 10.4%)

Introduction

An analysis has been conducted on a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NCAA basketball game between the Columbia Lions (home team) and the Fairfield Stags (away team) scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves placing bets on both outcomes across different bookmakers to potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's result.

Analysis

Bet Details:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Moneyline (H2H)
• Selection: Fairfield Stags
• Odds: +220
• Stake: $344.92

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (H2H)
• Selection: Columbia Lions
• Odds: -146
• Stake: $655.08

Odds Conversion to Decimal:

• Fairfield Stags (+220): (220 / 100) + 1 = 3.20
• Columbia Lions (-146): (100 / 146) + 1 ≈ 1.6849

Total Stake: $344.92 + $655.08 = $1,000

Potential Payouts:

Scenario 1 - Fairfield Stags Win:

• Payout from Bet 1: $344.92 × 3.20 = $1,103.74
• Profit: $1,103.74 - $1,000 = $103.74

Scenario 2 - Columbia Lions Win:

• Payout from Bet 2: $655.08 × 1.6849 ≈ $1,103.74
• Profit: $1,103.74 - $1,000 = $103.74

Discussion

The calculations suggest that, regardless of the game's outcome, there is a possibility of achieving a profit of approximately $103.74. This is due to the differences in odds offered by the two bookmakers for the opposing teams. By covering both outcomes with appropriately calculated stakes, the potential exists to secure a profit irrespective of which team wins.

It is important to consider potential risks that may affect the outcome of this opportunity:

• Betting Rules: Variations in betting rules between bookmakers could impact bet settlement. Both bets are on the moneyline market, which typically includes overtime results, but confirming this with each bookmaker is advisable.
• Game Postponement or Cancellation: If the game is postponed or canceled, bets may be voided, and stakes returned, potentially negating the arbitrage opportunity.
• Betting Limits and Restrictions: Bookmakers may have limitations on bet amounts or policies regarding arbitrage betting, which could affect the ability to place the bets as described.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in the specified NCAA basketball game, with the possibility of realizing a profit regardless of the outcome. All possible outcomes appear to be covered through the two bets, and the calculations demonstrate how the profit may be achieved based on the provided odds and stakes.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and consider their personal circumstances before making any betting decisions.