Profiting from NHL Totals Discrepancy (ROI: 57.5%)

Arbitrage Opportunity in NHL Totals Market

An analysis of recent odds in the NHL Alternate Totals market reveals a potential arbitrage opportunity between two well-known bookmakers: FanDuel and DraftKings. This observation is based on differing odds for the Over/Under 6.5 goals market in an upcoming game.

Detailed Analysis of the Bets

Bet Details:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Totals
• Selection: Under 6.5 Goals
• Odds: +110 (Decimal: 2.10)
• Stake: $750

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Alternate Totals
• Selection: Over 6.5 Goals
• Odds: +530 (Decimal: 6.30)
• Stake: $250

Calculating Potential Returns:

Bet 1 Return: 2.10 x $750 = $1,575

Bet 2 Return: 6.30 x $250 = $1,575

Possible Outcomes and Net Results

The total goals scored in an NHL game are whole numbers, making the following outcomes possible:

• Total Goals ≤ 6: Under 6.5 Goals bet wins, Over 6.5 Goals bet loses.
• Total Goals ≥ 7: Over 6.5 Goals bet wins, Under 6.5 Goals bet loses.

Net Profit Calculation:

Scenario 1 (Under 6.5 Goals Wins):

• Winnings from Bet 1: $1,575
• Total Stakes: $750 (Bet 1) + $250 (Bet 2) = $1,000
• Net Profit: $1,575 - $1,000 = $575

Scenario 2 (Over 6.5 Goals Wins):

• Winnings from Bet 2: $1,575
• Total Stakes: $1,000
• Net Profit: $1,575 - $1,000 = $575

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In both scenarios, the net profit remains consistent at $575.

Verification of Arbitrage Opportunity

Implied Probabilities:

• Under 6.5 Goals Odds (2.10): 1 / 2.10 ≈ 47.62%
• Over 6.5 Goals Odds (6.30): 1 / 6.30 ≈ 15.87%
• Total Implied Probability: 47.62% + 15.87% = 63.49%

Since the combined implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates an arbitrage situation.

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Stake Proportionality:

The stakes are set proportionally based on the inverse of the odds:

• Stake Ratio: (1 / 2.10) : (1 / 6.30) ≈ 0.4762 : 0.1587 ≈ 3:1
• Actual Stakes: $750 (Bet 1) : $250 (Bet 2) = 3:1

This proportionality ensures that the net profit is the same regardless of the outcome.

Implications and Considerations

This analysis highlights a situation where differing odds across bookmakers can potentially be leveraged. Such discrepancies allow for a balanced staking approach that, in theory, could result in a consistent net gain. It's important to consider factors such as:

• Market Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly, affecting the potential for arbitrage.
• Bet Acceptance: Bookmakers may limit stakes or restrict accounts involved in arbitrage.
• Regulatory Compliance: Always ensure that betting activities comply with local laws and regulations.

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Conclusion

The analysis demonstrates a scenario where an arbitrage opportunity exists in the NHL Alternate Totals market between FanDuel and DraftKings. By carefully calculating stakes and understanding implied probabilities, it's possible to identify situations where a net profit is achievable irrespective of the game outcome.

Disclaimer

This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation for betting activities. Betting involves risk, and it's important to engage responsibly and within the bounds of the law.