Profitable Bet Strategy for Colorado State vs Miami (OH) Football Game (ROI: 46.5%)

Introduction

A recent betting opportunity has emerged in the upcoming football match between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis examines the potential for an arbitrage bet involving two different bookmakers, FanDuel and DraftKings, on the total points scored in the game.

Detailed Analysis of the Betting Data

Two separate wagers are available for this event:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Totals
• Bet Type: Over 53.5 points
• Odds: +630 (American odds)
• Stake: $200.73

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Totals
• Bet Type: Under 53.5 points
• Odds: -120 (American odds)
• Stake: $799.27

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.

Calculating Potential Outcomes

To understand the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it is essential to calculate the potential payouts and profits for each bet.

Bet 1: Over 53.5 at +630

Conversion of Odds to Decimal:

Decimal Odds = 1 + (American Odds / 100) = 1 + (630 / 100) = 7.30

Potential Payout:

Payout = Stake × Decimal Odds = $200.73 × 7.30 = $1,465.33

Potential Profit:

Profit = Payout - Stake = $1,465.33 - $200.73 = $1,264.60

Bet 2: Under 53.5 at -120

Conversion of Odds to Decimal:

Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / |American Odds|) = 1 + (100 / 120) ≈ 1.8333

Potential Payout:

Payout = Stake × Decimal Odds = $799.27 × 1.8333 ≈ $1,465.33

Potential Profit:

Profit = Payout - Stake = $1,465.33 - $799.27 = $666.06

Discussion of Possible Scenarios

Since the total points in a football game cannot be a half-point, the total will either be over or under 53.5 points. The analysis considers both outcomes:

Scenario 1: Total Points Over 53.5

• Bet 1 Wins: Returns a profit of $1,264.60.
• Bet 2 Loses: Loss of the $799.27 stake.
• Total Profit: $1,264.60 - $799.27 = $465.33.

Scenario 2: Total Points Under 53.5

• Bet 2 Wins: Returns a profit of $666.06.
• Bet 1 Loses: Loss of the $200.73 stake.
• Total Profit: $666.06 - $200.73 = $465.33.

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In both scenarios, the total profit equates to $465.33.

Implications and Considerations

This analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market, specifically in arbitrage betting. The equalization of payouts ensures that, regardless of the game's outcome, the bettor stands to make a consistent profit. However, several factors should be taken into account:

• Market Rules: Verify that both bookmakers apply the same rules for settling bets, particularly concerning overtime or other scoring nuances.
• Stake Limitations: Be aware of any maximum stake limits or betting restrictions that may affect the ability to place the necessary wagers.
• Legal Considerations: Ensure that participating in such betting activities complies with local laws and regulations.
• Bookmaker Policies: Review the terms and conditions of both FanDuel and DraftKings to understand any potential implications fully.

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Conclusion

The analysis presents a scenario where an arbitrage bet could yield a profit of $465.33, irrespective of the match result between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks. By calculating the stakes and understanding the odds, this opportunity showcases how discrepancies in betting markets can be utilized. It is crucial to approach such opportunities with caution, considering all potential risks and ensuring compliance with all applicable regulations.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before making any betting decisions. This analysis does not endorse or recommend any betting activities.