Profitable Arbitrage Bet on Davidson vs. Eastern Michigan (ROI: 30.0%)
Introduction
An interesting opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving an upcoming NCAAB game between the Davidson Wildcats and the Eastern Michigan Eagles. This memo provides an objective analysis of the betting data provided, focusing on a potential arbitrage betting situation.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Date & Time: December 28, 2024, 2:00 PM
- League: NCAAB (Men's College Basketball)
- Teams: Davidson Wildcats (Home) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (Away)
Betting Information:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: Davidson Wildcats
- Odds: -280 (American odds)
- Stake: $958.06
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: Eastern Michigan Eagles
- Odds: +3000 (American odds)
- Stake: $41.94
Odds Conversion:
For analysis, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- Davidson Wildcats: -280 ➔ Decimal odds = 1 + (100 / 280) ≈ 1.3571
- Eastern Michigan Eagles: +3000 ➔ Decimal odds = 1 + (3000 / 100) = 31.00
Implied Probabilities:
Calculating implied probabilities:
- Davidson Wildcats: 280 / (280 + 100) × 100% ≈ 73.68%
- Eastern Michigan Eagles: 100 / (3000 + 100) × 100% ≈ 3.23%
Total implied probability: 73.68% + 3.23% ≈ 76.91%
Arbitrage Calculation:
The arbitrage percentage is calculated as follows:
(1 / 1.3571) + (1 / 31.00) ≈ 0.7368 + 0.0323 ≈ 0.7691
Arbitrage percentage: 0.7691 × 100% ≈ 76.91%
A total less than 100% suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Discussion
Potential Outcomes:
Analyzing the possible returns for each outcome:
If Davidson Wildcats Win:
- Return from Bet 1: $958.06 × 1.3571 ≈ $1,300.94
- Loss on Bet 2: $41.94
- Net Profit: $1,300.94 - $1,000 (total stake) = $300.94
If Eastern Michigan Eagles Win:
- Return from Bet 2: $41.94 × 31.00 ≈ $1,300.14
- Loss on Bet 1: $958.06
- Net Profit: $1,300.14 - $1,000 (total stake) = $300.14
Considerations:
While the calculations indicate a favorable scenario, several factors warrant careful consideration:
- Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly; ensure both bets are placed simultaneously to lock in the stated odds.
- Stake Limits: Bookmakers may impose limits on stake amounts, particularly with high odds bets.
- Bet Acceptance: There is a risk of bets being voided due to errors or discrepancies in odds.
- Bookmaker Policies: Different bookmakers may have varying rules regarding bet settlement, especially in events of postponement or cancellation.
- Event Uncertainty: With the event scheduled far in the future, unexpected changes could occur.
Conclusion
The analysis highlights a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming game between the Davidson Wildcats and the Eastern Michigan Eagles. By carefully evaluating the factors involved and staying informed of any developments, bettors can consider whether this opportunity aligns with their strategies. Objective assessment and due diligence are essential in the dynamic landscape of sports betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves inherent risks, and individuals should make decisions based on their own judgment and responsibility.