Profit Potential: Raiders vs Chargers Q1 Arbitrage (ROI: 32.3%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving the upcoming NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers. An analysis of the available odds from two major bookmakers suggests a potential arbitrage betting situation. This memo provides a detailed, objective examination of this opportunity for those interested in arbitrage betting strategies.

Event Details

Match: Las Vegas Raiders (Home) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Away)

Date and Time: January 5, 2025, at 11:25 PM

Market: First Quarter Moneyline (h2h_q1)

Betting Details

Bet 1

Bookmaker: DraftKings

Outcome: Las Vegas Raiders to win Q1

Odds: +340 (American odds)

Stake: $300.79

Bet 2

Bookmaker: FanDuel

Outcome: Los Angeles Chargers to win Q1

Odds: -112 (American odds)

Stake: $699.21

Analysis

The proposed bets involve wagering on both possible outcomes of the first quarter in the same game but with different bookmakers offering varying odds. The goal is to secure a profit regardless of the outcome by exploiting the discrepancy in odds.

Conversion of American Odds to Decimal Odds

For clarity in calculation, American odds are converted to decimal odds.

Las Vegas Raiders (+340):

Decimal Odds = (340 / 100) + 1 = 4.40

Los Angeles Chargers (-112):

Decimal Odds = (100 / 112) + 1 ≈ 1.8929

Calculation of Potential Returns

Total Stake: $300.79 (Bet 1) + $699.21 (Bet 2) = $1,000

Scenario 1: Raiders Win Q1

Bet 1 Wins:

Return = $300.79 × 4.40 = $1,323.48

Profit = Return - Stake = $1,323.48 - $300.79 = $1,022.69

Bet 2 Loses:

Loss = -$699.21

Total Profit:

Net Profit = $1,323.48 (Return from Bet 1) - $1,000 (Total Stake) = $323.48

Scenario 2: Chargers Win Q1

Bet 2 Wins:

Return = $699.21 × 1.8929 ≈ $1,323.50

Profit = Return - Stake = $1,323.50 - $699.21 = $624.29

Bet 1 Loses:

Loss = -$300.79

Total Profit:

Net Profit = $1,323.50 (Return from Bet 2) - $1,000 (Total Stake) = $323.50

<

Discussion

The calculations indicate a guaranteed profit of approximately $323.48 to $323.50, irrespective of which team wins the first quarter. This outcome arises from the disparity in odds offered by DraftKings and FanDuel, allowing for an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.

Key Considerations:

• Market Consistency: Both bets are placed on the First Quarter Moneyline. It's crucial to ensure that the market terms are identical across both bookmakers, including how they handle ties or voided bets.
• Ties and Pushes: In the event of a tie in the first quarter, it's important to understand the bookmakers' policies. A push could alter the profit calculations, potentially reducing the guaranteed profit.
• Bet Placement Timing: Odds can fluctuate rapidly. To maintain the viability of the arbitrage opportunity, both bets should be placed as close together as possible.
• Bookmaker Limits: Be aware of any maximum or minimum bet limits that might prevent the placement of the required stakes to achieve the calculated profit.
• Transaction Fees: Consider any fees associated with placing bets or withdrawing winnings, as these can affect the net profit.

<

Conclusion

The analysis demonstrates that the identified bets constitute a valid arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. By placing the specified stakes on the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers to win the first quarter, a bettor can secure a profit of approximately $323.50 regardless of the game's outcome. This situation exemplifies how discrepancies in odds between bookmakers can be leveraged in arbitrage betting strategies.

Disclaimer

This memo is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activity. Betting involves risk, and individuals should ensure they are complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Always gamble responsibly.