Profit from Over/Under Betting Arbitrage on DePaul vs. Loyola Game (ROI: 10.4%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has been identified for the upcoming basketball game between the DePaul Blue Demons and the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:01 PM. This analysis aims to provide an objective overview of the betting options available in the Alternate Totals market for this event.
Detailed Analysis
The focus is on the total points line of 151.5 in the game. Two different bookmakers are offering odds on the over and under outcomes of this line:
Bet 1: Over 151.5 Points
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Odds: +165
- Stake: $416.67
Bet 2: Under 151.5 Points
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Odds: -112
- Stake: $583.33
Total Stake: $1,000.00
Implications and Potential Outcomes
By placing these two bets, all possible outcomes for the total points line are covered. Here’s how each scenario plays out:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 151.5
Bet 1 Wins: The payout from FanDuel would be calculated as follows:
Payout = $416.67 (Stake) × (1 + (165/100)) = $1,104.17
Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $583.33 (Stake at BetRivers)
Net Profit: $1,104.17 (Payout) - $583.33 (Lost Stake) - $416.67 (Original Stake) = $104.17
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 151.5
Bet 2 Wins: The payout from BetRivers would be calculated as follows:
Payout = $583.33 (Stake) × (1 + (100/112)) = $1,104.16
Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $416.67 (Stake at FanDuel)
Net Profit: $1,104.16 (Payout) - $416.67 (Lost Stake) - $583.33 (Original Stake) = $104.16
Discussion
In both scenarios, the total return is approximately $1,104.17 on a total stake of $1,000.00, resulting in a net profit of around $104.17. This setup appears to be a potential arbitrage betting opportunity, where differing odds between bookmakers allow for a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
However, several factors should be considered:
- Verification of Odds: Odds can fluctuate, so it's important to confirm that these odds are still available at the time of placing the bets.
- Bookmaker Policies: Review the terms and conditions of both FanDuel and BetRivers, focusing on their policies regarding sports betting and any restrictions on stake amounts or payouts.
- Market Definitions: Ensure that both bookmakers have the same definition for the Alternate Totals market and that the bets encompass the same conditions (e.g., including overtime).
- Event Validation: Verify the event date and time, as the stated date is over a year away, which is unusual for betting markets.
Conclusion
This analysis highlights a possible arbitrage situation in the sports betting market for the DePaul Blue Demons vs. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds game. By covering both outcomes of the total points line at differing odds, there's an indication of a potential profit. It's essential to conduct thorough due diligence, confirm all details, and consider any risks associated with the bookmakers' terms and market conditions.
Disclaimer
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risk, and it's important to gamble responsibly. Always verify odds and consult with professional advisors before engaging in any betting activities.