Potential Arbitrage Risk in Rams vs. Cardinals 1st Quarter Bet (ROI: 49.9%)
Potential arbitrage in NFL Rams vs Cardinals 1st quarter H2H. Bet $305.95 Rams at +390 odds and $694.05 Cardinals at +116. Total $1,000 stake. Scenarios: Rams win $498.16 profit, Cardinals win $498.15 profit, tie loses $1,000. Not true arbitrage due to tie risk.
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting arena, focusing on the NFL matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. This opportunity involves the Head-to-Head (H2H) market for the 1st quarter of the game, with differing odds presented by DraftKings and BetRivers.
Analysis
The proposed bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Head-to-Head (1st Quarter) - H2H_Q1
- Outcome: Los Angeles Rams to win the 1st quarter
- Odds: +390 (Decimal Odds: 4.90)
- Stake: $305.95
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Head-to-Head (1st Quarter) - H2H_Q1
- Outcome: Arizona Cardinals to win the 1st quarter
- Odds: +116 (Decimal Odds: 2.16)
- Stake: $694.05
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.
Discussion
In the 1st quarter H2H market, there are three possible outcomes:
1. The Los Angeles Rams win the 1st quarter.
2. The Arizona Cardinals win the 1st quarter.
3. The 1st quarter ends in a tie.
Potential Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Rams Win the 1st Quarter
- Payout from Bet 1: $305.95 × 4.90 = $1,498.16
- Total Profit: $1,498.16 - $1,000 = $498.16
- Bet 2 results in a loss of $694.05.
Scenario 2: Cardinals Win the 1st Quarter
- Payout from Bet 2: $694.05 × 2.16 = $1,498.15
- Total Profit: $1,498.15 - $1,000 = $498.15
- Bet 1 results in a loss of $305.95.
Scenario 3: 1st Quarter Ends in a Tie
- Both bets result in losses, totaling $1,000.
Implications:
While the first two scenarios suggest a profit, the third scenario presents a significant risk. The possibility of the 1st quarter ending in a tie means neither bet covers this outcome, potentially leading to a total loss of the staked amount.
Conclusion
The analysis reveals that this betting strategy does not constitute a true arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. The uncovered outcome of a tie introduces a substantial risk, as it could result in losing the entire $1,000 stake. A comprehensive arbitrage position would require coverage of all possible outcomes to ensure a risk-free profit.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider all factors before engaging in any betting activities.