Potential Arbitrage in Davidson vs. Eastern Michigan Game (ROI: 88.9%)

Introduction

A potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged involving the upcoming college basketball game between the Davidson Wildcats and the Eastern Michigan Eagles, scheduled for December 28, 2024. The proposed bets are as follows:

Analysis

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: Davidson Wildcats to win
• Odds: +100 (American odds)
• Stake: $944.44

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
• Outcome: Eastern Michigan Eagles to win
• Odds: +3300 (American odds)
• Stake: $55.56

To assess the validity of this arbitrage bet, we'll convert the American odds to decimal odds and calculate the potential returns for each outcome.

Converting Odds to Decimal Format:

• FanDuel Odds (+100): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 100) = 2.00
• BetMGM Odds (+3300): Decimal Odds = 1 + (3300 / 100) = 34.00

Possible Outcomes and Net Profits:

1. Davidson Wildcats Win

• Return from Bet 1: $944.44 × 2.00 = $1,888.88
• Net Profit from Bet 1: $1,888.88 - $944.44 = $944.44
• Loss from Bet 2: -$55.56
• Total Net Profit: $944.44 - $55.56 = $888.88

2. Eastern Michigan Eagles Win

• Return from Bet 2: $55.56 × 34.00 = $1,888.96
• Net Profit from Bet 2: $1,888.96 - $55.56 = $1,833.40
• Loss from Bet 1: -$944.44
• Total Net Profit: $1,833.40 - $944.44 = $888.96

The calculations suggest a profit of approximately $889 regardless of the game's outcome.

Discussion

Despite the promising calculations, several factors may affect the validity of this arbitrage opportunity:

1. Unusual Odds Discrepancy: The +3300 odds for Eastern Michigan are atypically high for a college basketball game, indicating a potential error.
2. Potential Palpable Error: Bookmakers may void bets placed on incorrect odds due to human or technical errors, impacting the expected returns.
3. Stake Limitations: Betting platforms often impose maximum stake limits or payout caps, which could hinder the ability to place the required bets.
4. Market Rules Differences: Variations in market conditions and rules between bookmakers could affect bet outcomes.
5. Event Timing: With the game scheduled over a year in the future, there's an increased risk of unforeseen changes or cancellations.
6. Bookmaker Terms: The terms and conditions of both FanDuel and BetMGM may contain clauses that affect the validity of the bets.

Conclusion

While the theoretical calculations indicate a potential arbitrage profit, practical considerations introduce significant risks. The high odds discrepancy suggests a possible error that could lead to bet voidance. Additionally, operational limitations such as stake caps and terms of service clauses may prevent the realization of the arbitrage profit. Therefore, this scenario does not constitute a valid and risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity in practice.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should consult with professionals before making any betting decisions.