Pelicans vs Rockets NBA Betting Arbitrage
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting for the upcoming NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets, scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM. This opportunity involves placing bets on the alternate team total points for the New Orleans Pelicans across two different sportsbooks.
Analysis
The arbitrage involves the following two bets:
Bet 1:
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Market: Under 109.5 total points for the Pelicans
- Odds: +550
- Stake: $453.78
Bet 2:
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Market: Over 109.5 total points for the Pelicans
- Odds: +440
- Stake: $546.22
Total stakes invested: $1,000
We will assess the possible outcomes based on the Pelicans' total points scored.
Discussion
Scenario 1: Pelicans score under 109.5 points (109 points or fewer)
In this scenario, Bet 1 wins, and Bet 2 loses.
Bet 1 Payout Calculation:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100)
Profit = $453.78 × (550 / 100) = $453.78 × 5.5 = $2,495.79
Total Return = Profit + Stake = $2,495.79 + $453.78 = $2,949.57
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $2,949.57 - $1,000 = $1,949.57
Scenario 2: Pelicans score over 109.5 points (110 points or more)
In this scenario, Bet 2 wins, and Bet 1 loses.
Bet 2 Payout Calculation:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100)
Profit = $546.22 × (440 / 100) = $546.22 × 4.4 = $2,403.37
Total Return = Profit + Stake = $2,403.37 + $546.22 = $2,949.59
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $2,949.59 - $1,000 = $1,949.59
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $1,949.58, regardless of the outcome of the game. This is achieved by covering all possible scoring outcomes for the Pelicans, effectively creating a risk-neutral position.
Considerations
Several factors should be considered before proceeding:
- Bookmaker Terms and Conditions: Ensure that both DraftKings and FanDuel have consistent rules regarding the settlement of bets, particularly concerning overtime and how total points are calculated.
- Bet Acceptance: High odds and substantial stakes may attract scrutiny. Verify that both sportsbooks will accept the bets at the specified odds and stake amounts.
- Odds Fluctuations: Sports betting odds can change rapidly. Confirm that the odds are accurate at the time of placing the bets to maintain the validity of the arbitrage opportunity.
- Legal Considerations: Be aware of the legal regulations surrounding sports betting and arbitrage betting in your jurisdiction to ensure compliance with all applicable laws.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that this arbitrage betting opportunity could result in a net profit of approximately $1,949.58, irrespective of the Pelicans' total points scored in the game. By strategically placing bets on both the over and under markets at favorable odds, bettors can potentially secure a profit while minimizing risk.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational and informational purposes only. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and outcomes are not guaranteed. Readers should conduct their own research and consider seeking advice from a qualified professional before engaging in any betting activities.