Pelicans vs Rockets: Arbitrage Point Spread Opportunity
Introduction
This memo provides an analysis of a recently identified potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. The opportunity involves the NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM. By examining the alternate point spread odds offered by two different bookmakers, bettors might find a way to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Game: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets
- Date and Time: December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM
- Market: Alternate Point Spreads
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Wager: Houston Rockets -19.5
- Odds: +750
- Stake: $174.76
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Wager: New Orleans Pelicans +19.5
- Odds: -125
- Stake: $825.24
The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000. These bets are placed on opposite outcomes with point spreads that do not overlap, ensuring that one bet will win while the other loses.
Discussion
Possible Outcomes:
1. Houston Rockets win by 20 or more points.
- Bet 1 wins, Bet 2 loses.
2. New Orleans Pelicans win or lose by 19 points or fewer.
- Bet 2 wins, Bet 1 loses.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Scenario 1: Houston Rockets win by 20 or more points.
- Bet 1 Wins: The payout is calculated using decimal odds.
Decimal Odds = (750 / 100) + 1 = 8.5
Payout = $174.76 × 8.5 = $1,485.46
Profit = $1,485.46 - $174.76 = $1,310.70
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $825.24.
- Net Profit: $1,310.70 - $825.24 = $485.46
Scenario 2: New Orleans Pelicans win or lose by 19 points or fewer.
- Bet 2 Wins: The payout is calculated using decimal odds.
Decimal Odds = (100 / 125) + 1 = 1.8
Payout = $825.24 × 1.8 = $1,485.43
Profit = $1,485.43 - $825.24 = $660.19
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $174.76.
- Net Profit: $660.19 - $174.76 = $485.43
Summary:
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $485. This illustrates a classic case of arbitrage betting, where the bettor capitalizes on differing odds to secure a profit.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that by placing the described bets, a bettor could potentially secure a profit of around $485, regardless of the game's outcome. This is achieved through careful calculation and exploitation of the discrepancies in the odds offered by different bookmakers on alternate point spreads. Such opportunities in sports betting highlight the importance of thorough market analysis and understanding of arbitrage betting strategies.
Disclaimer
This information is intended for educational purposes related to sports betting and arbitrage betting. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in betting activities. Betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their actions and consult with a professional advisor where appropriate.