North Carolina vs. UConn Arbitrage Betting Opportunity

Introduction

A new opportunity has emerged in the sports betting arena involving the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 AM. This memo provides an objective analysis of a potential arbitrage betting scenario, utilizing alternate point spreads offered by two different bookmakers.

Analysis

Two bets have been identified that together cover all possible outcomes of the game:

Bet 1:

Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Alternate Spreads
Selection: North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 points
Odds: +120 (US Odds)
Stake: $482.35

Bet 2:

Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Spreads
Selection: UConn Huskies -10.5 points
Odds: +105 (US Odds)
Stake: $517.65

The point spread of ±10.5 ensures that there is no overlap in outcomes, and the half-point prevents any possibility of a tie (push). One of the two bets will result in a win, while the other will lose.

Possible Outcomes and Bet Results:

• If North Carolina wins the game or loses by 10 points or fewer:
  - Bet 1 wins
  - Bet 2 loses
• If UConn wins by 11 points or more:
  - Bet 1 loses
  - Bet 2 wins

Conversion of Odds to Decimal:

Bet 1 Odds (+120): Decimal Odds = 1 + (120/100) = 2.20
Bet 2 Odds (+105): Decimal Odds = 1 + (105/100) = 2.05

Potential Payouts:

Bet 1 Potential Payout = $482.35 × 2.20 = $1,061.17
Bet 2 Potential Payout = $517.65 × 2.05 = $1,061.17

Total Stakes and Profit:

Total Amount Staked = $482.35 + $517.65 = $1,000
Guaranteed Payout = $1,061.17
Potential Profit = $1,061.17 - $1,000 = $61.17
Return on Investment (ROI) = ($61.17 / $1,000) × 100% = 6.117%

Discussion

This betting strategy represents a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. By placing these two bets, a bettor could secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome, as the bets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

Considerations:

• Market Conditions: Odds can fluctuate, so it's important to confirm that the specified odds are still available before placing the bets.
• Bookmaker Policies: Different bookmakers may have varying rules regarding cancellations, voided bets, and settlement procedures. It's important to review the terms and conditions of both DraftKings and BetMGM.
• Event Timing: The game is scheduled over a year in the future, which introduces variables such as potential postponements, cancellations, or changes in team performance.
• Betting Limits: Ensure that both bookmakers accept the specified stake amounts to avoid any discrepancies.
• Legal Compliance: Verify that participating in this betting strategy complies with local laws and regulations pertaining to sports betting and arbitrage betting.

Conclusion

The structured bets present a calculated opportunity within the sports betting market. By covering all possible outcomes with opposing bets at favorable odds, there is a potential for a positive ROI of approximately 6.117%. It's essential to carefully consider all factors, including market volatility and bookmaker policies, to effectively utilize this arbitrage betting strategy.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves financial risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals should exercise due diligence and consider seeking advice from a qualified professional before engaging in any betting activities.