Non-Arbitrage Alert: Navy vs. Oklahoma Betting Scenario Analysis

Introduction

A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners on December 27, 2024. This memo examines the details of this betting scenario to assess its viability within the sports betting market.

Analysis

Event Details:
Date & Time: December 27, 2024, at 12:05 PM
League: NCAA Football (NCAAF)
Matchup: Navy Midshipmen (Home) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Away)

Bet Details:

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Point Spread
Selection: Navy Midshipmen +14.5
Odds: +100
Stake: $512.20

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Point Spread
Selection: Oklahoma Sooners -14.5
Odds: -110
Stake: $487.80

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000 ($512.20 on Bet 1 and $487.80 on Bet 2).

Discussion

The essence of arbitrage betting lies in capitalizing on discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers to secure a guaranteed profit, regardless of the event outcome. In this scenario, the two bets cover opposing outcomes based on the point spread:

Navy Midshipmen +14.5: This bet succeeds if Navy wins the game outright or loses by 14 points or fewer.

Oklahoma Sooners -14.5: This bet succeeds if Oklahoma wins by 15 points or more.

Given that half-point spreads are used, there is no possibility of a tie; one bet will win, and the other will lose.

Calculating Potential Outcomes:

Scenario 1: Navy Covers the Spread (+14.5)

• Bet 1 Wins: At odds of +100, the potential profit is calculated as:
  Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $512.20 × (100 / 100) = $512.20
  Total return = Stake + Profit = $512.20 + $512.20 = $1,024.40
• Bet 2 Loses: The stake of $487.80 is lost.
• Net Profit: Total return - Total stakes = $1,024.40 - $1,000 = $24.40 profit

Scenario 2: Oklahoma Covers the Spread (-14.5)

• Bet 2 Wins: At odds of -110, the potential profit is calculated as:
  Profit = Stake / (|Odds| / 100) = $487.80 / (110 / 100) = $443.45
  Total return = Stake + Profit = $487.80 + $443.45 = $931.25
• Bet 1 Loses: The stake of $512.20 is lost.
• Net Loss: Total return - Total stakes = $931.25 - $1,000 = $68.75 loss

Assessment: The calculations indicate that one outcome results in a profit of $24.40, while the other leads to a loss of $68.75. This disparity suggests that the betting strategy does not eliminate risk and therefore does not meet the criteria for a risk-free arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.

Conclusion

While the betting scenario covers all possible outcomes of the game, the imbalance between the potential profit and loss reveals that it is not a valid arbitrage bet. The presence of a significant potential loss outweighs the modest potential gain, indicating that the strategy involves risk. Careful consideration and detailed analysis are essential when identifying true arbitrage betting opportunities in the sports betting landscape.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Please conduct your own research and exercise caution when participating in sports betting.