No Arbitrage on Panthers vs Canadiens! (ROI: 24.2%)
In this live update memo, we analyze a recent betting scenario involving the NHL match between the Florida Panthers and the Montréal Canadiens scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to determine whether the presented bets constitute a valid arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Introduction
The betting market in focus is the Alternate Team Totals for goals scored by the Florida Panthers. Two bets have been placed on opposite outcomes:
- Bet 1: Under 0.5 goals for Florida Panthers at odds of +130 (Decimal Odds: 2.30) with a stake of $540 through DraftKings.
- Bet 2: Over 0.5 goals for Florida Panthers at odds of -170 (Decimal Odds: 1.5882) with a stake of $460 through BetMGM.
The total stake across both bets is $1,000.
Analysis
To assess whether this scenario presents a risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity, we examine the possible outcomes and potential profits or losses associated with each.
Possible Outcomes
1. Florida Panthers score 0 goals:
- Bet 1 wins: The under 0.5 goals bet is successful.
- Bet 2 loses: The over 0.5 goals bet is unsuccessful.
2. Florida Panthers score 1 or more goals:
- Bet 1 loses: The under 0.5 goals bet is unsuccessful.
- Bet 2 wins: The over 0.5 goals bet is successful.
Calculating Returns and Profits
Scenario 1 (0 Goals):
- Bet 1 Payout: $540 x 2.30 = $1,242
- Total Return: $1,242
- Total Profit: $1,242 - $1,000 = $242 Profit
Scenario 2 (1+ Goals):
- Bet 2 Payout: $460 x 1.5882 ≈ $730
- Total Return: $730
- Total Profit: $730 - $1,000 = -$270 Loss
Discussion
The analysis reveals a profit in one scenario and a loss in the other, indicating that the bets do not provide a guaranteed return regardless of the outcome. To further evaluate the arbitrage potential, we calculate the implied probabilities and assess the total implied probability.
Implied Probabilities
- Bet 1 Implied Probability: 1 / 2.30 ≈ 43.48%
- Bet 2 Implied Probability: 1 / 1.5882 ≈ 62.99%
- Total Implied Probability: 43.48% + 62.99% = 106.47%
A total implied probability exceeding 100% indicates that no arbitrage opportunity exists, as the combined odds do not favor a risk-free profit in sports betting.
Stake Optimization
Attempting to adjust the stakes proportionally to the implied probabilities may minimize potential losses but does not eliminate them. Using the optimal stakes ratio:
- Stake Ratio: 62.99% / 43.48% ≈ 1.448
- Adjusted Stakes:
- Bet 1: $1,000 / (1 + 1.448) ≈ $408.40
- Bet 2: $1,000 - $408.40 = $591.60
Recalculating profits with adjusted stakes:
- Both scenarios result in a loss of approximately $60.68, confirming the absence of a risk-free arbitrage.
Conclusion
The presented bets on the Florida Panthers vs. Montréal Canadiens match do not constitute a valid arbitrage betting opportunity. The total implied probability exceeds 100%, and adjusting stakes does not mitigate the potential for loss. Bettors should be cautious and conduct thorough analyses when identifying arbitrage opportunities in sports betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should exercise due diligence and consider consulting with a professional before engaging in any betting activities.