NHL Player Prop Arbitrage: Pastrnak SOG
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged in the upcoming NHL game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Boston Bruins on December 27, 2024. This opportunity involves a player prop bet on David Pastrnak's total shots on goal (SOG). This memo provides an objective analysis of the bets to assist in understanding the potential for arbitrage betting in this sports betting scenario.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: David Pastrnak Over 4.5 Shots on Goal
- Odds: +145
- Stake: $411.66
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: David Pastrnak Under 4.5 Shots on Goal
- Odds: -140
- Stake: $588.34
Total Stake: $1,000
The aim is to capitalize on the difference in odds between two bookmakers, potentially securing a profit regardless of the outcome.
Mathematical Calculation
Scenario 1: Over 4.5 Shots on Goal
- Payout from Bet 1: $411.66 x (1 + 145/100) = $1,008.57
- Loss from Bet 2: -$588.34
- Net Profit: $1,008.57 - $588.34 - $1,000 (total stake) = $8.57
Scenario 2: Under 4.5 Shots on Goal
- Payout from Bet 2: $588.34 x (1 + 100/140) = $1,008.57
- Loss from Bet 1: -$411.66
- Net Profit: $1,008.57 - $411.66 - $1,000 (total stake) = $8.57
Return on Investment (ROI): ($8.57 / $1,000) x 100% = 0.857%
Discussion
The calculations indicate a possibility of a profit of approximately $8.57 in either outcome, fitting the criteria for arbitrage betting. This opportunity arises due to the variance in odds offered by BetRivers and FanDuel in the sports betting market.
Key Considerations:
- Betting Rules: Verify that both bookmakers have consistent rules regarding player participation, bet settlement, and how shots on goal are counted, including overtime.
- Odds Stability: Ensure that the odds remain unchanged when placing both bets to maintain the calculated profit margin.
- Stake Limits: Be aware of any betting limits imposed by the bookmakers that may affect the stakes and potential returns.
- Legal Compliance: Confirm that arbitrage betting is permitted in your jurisdiction and complies with all relevant laws and regulations.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests a viable arbitrage betting opportunity with a modest potential return. By carefully assessing the betting rules and considering the noted factors, individuals interested in arbitrage betting can make informed decisions within the sports betting landscape.
Disclaimer
This information is intended for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation or endorsement of any betting activity. Individuals should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before engaging in sports betting or arbitrage betting.