NHL First-Period Moneyline Arbitrage: Blackhawks vs Rangers (ROI: 51.4%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NHL game between the Chicago Blackhawks and the New York Rangers scheduled for January 5, 2025. This opportunity involves placing bets on the first-period moneyline market across two different sportsbooks.

Detailed Analysis

Here are the specifics of the bets:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: First Period Moneyline (h2h_p1)
• Selection: Chicago Blackhawks to win the first period
• Odds: -105
• Stake: $775.65

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: First Period Moneyline (h2h_p1)
• Selection: New York Rangers to win the first period
• Odds: +575
• Stake: $224.35

The total amount wagered is $1,000. We will analyze the potential outcomes to assess whether this constitutes a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

Calculations

Conversion of American Odds to Decimal Odds:

• For Odds -105:
  Decimal Odds = (100 / 105) + 1 = 0.9524 + 1 = 1.9524
• For Odds +575:
  Decimal Odds = (575 / 100) + 1 = 5.75 + 1 = 6.75

Scenario 1: Chicago Blackhawks Win the First Period

Bet 1 Wins:

• Potential Return = $775.65 × 1.9524 = $1,514.36
• Net Profit = $1,514.36 - $775.65 (stake) = $738.71

Total Profit After Both Bets:

• Total Profit = Net Profit - Stake of Losing Bet (Bet 2) = $738.71 - $224.35 = $514.36

Scenario 2: New York Rangers Win the First Period

Bet 2 Wins:

• Potential Return = $224.35 × 6.75 = $1,514.36
• Net Profit = $1,514.36 - $224.35 (stake) = $1,290.01

Total Profit After Both Bets:

• Total Profit = Net Profit - Stake of Losing Bet (Bet 1) = $1,290.01 - $775.65 = $514.36

In both scenarios, the total profit after accounting for the losing bet remains the same at $514.36.

Discussion

This analysis suggests a situation where regardless of the outcome of the first period, there is a consistent return on the total investment. The key factors contributing to this opportunity are the differences in odds offered by the two bookmakers.

Implied Probabilities:

• For Odds -105 (Chicago Blackhawks):
  Implied Probability = 105 / (105 + 100) = 51.22%
• For Odds +575 (New York Rangers):
  Implied Probability = 100 / (575 + 100) = 14.81%
• Total Implied Probability = 51.22% + 14.81% = 66.03%

The total implied probability is less than 100%, indicating an arbitrage opportunity due to the market inefficiency.

Considerations

While the numbers point toward a favorable situation, several factors should be taken into account:

• Market Volatility: Odds can change rapidly. It's crucial to confirm the odds and stakes before placing the bets.
• Staking Limitations: Sportsbooks may impose limits on the amount you can wager, especially with high odds. Verify any restrictions beforehand.
• Account Regulations: Consistent arbitrage betting might lead to account limitations or closures by bookmakers. Review the terms of service to ensure compliance.
• Simultaneous Betting: Place both bets concurrently to mitigate the risk of odds shifting between bets.

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Conclusion

The presented data outlines a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the first-period moneyline market of the NHL game between the Chicago Blackhawks and the New York Rangers. By analyzing the odds and calculating the potential returns, there appears to be a consistent profit margin regardless of the game's outcome. However, it's important to approach this opportunity with due diligence, considering all the variables and ensuring adherence to all betting regulations.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Please gamble responsibly and ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.