NHL First Period Arbitrage with Market Pitfalls (ROI: 44.8%)
Arbitrage identified for NHL game: Washington to win first period bet with FanDuel at +500, $241.38; Toronto win with BetMGM at -110, $758.62. Total stake $1,000. Two-way market: profit if either wins, refund if tied. Three-way market: loss if tied. Confirm market type for risk assessment.
Introduction
The following analysis examines a recently identified arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for an upcoming NHL game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals on December 28, 2024, at 7:15 pm.
Analysis
Two bets have been identified in the head-to-head market for the first period (h2h_p1) of the game:
Bet 1: Placed with FanDuel on the Washington Capitals to win the first period at odds of +500, with a stake of $241.38.
Bet 2: Placed with BetMGM on the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the first period at odds of -110, with a stake of $758.62.
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The potential outcomes depend on the result of the first period.
Discussion
The primary consideration is whether the h2h_p1 market is a two-way market (where a tie results in a push or refund) or a three-way market (where a tie results in a loss for bets on either team).
If the market is two-way: In the event of either team winning the first period, one bet will win, and the other will lose. The winnings from the successful bet will cover the total stake and provide a profit. If the first period ends in a tie, both bets are refunded, resulting in no profit or loss.
If the market is three-way: If the first period ends in a tie, both bets lose, resulting in a total loss of the $1,000 stake. This significantly alters the risk profile of the arbitrage opportunity.
Calculations for potential outcomes:
Scenario 1: Toronto wins the first period. Bet 2 wins: Potential profit = ($758.62 / 1.9091) * 1 = $689.65. Total return = $758.62 + $689.65 = $1,448.27. Net profit = $1,448.27 - $1,000 = $448.27.
Scenario 2: Washington wins the first period. Bet 1 wins: Potential profit = $241.38 * 5 = $1,206.90. Total return = $241.38 + $1,206.90 = $1,448.28. Net profit = $1,448.28 - $1,000 = $448.28.
Scenario 3: First period ends in a tie. If two-way market: Both bets are refunded; net profit is $0. If three-way market: Both bets lose; net loss is $1,000.
Conclusion
This arbitrage opportunity appears profitable if the h2h_p1 market is confirmed to be a two-way market where a tie results in a push or refund. In this case, the bettor secures a substantial profit regardless of which team wins the first period, with no risk of loss if the period ends in a tie. However, if the market is a three-way market, the potential for total loss exists if the first period ends in a tie, making the arbitrage non-viable due to the significant risk involved.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and readers should consult the terms and conditions of the bookmakers and consider their personal circumstances before engaging in any betting activities.