NHL Arbitrage: Sharks vs. Flames Betting Edge
1. Introduction
A recent development in the sports betting arena presents a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NHL match between the San Jose Sharks (home) and the Calgary Flames (away), scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 10:00 PM. This analysis will examine the provided betting odds and stakes to assess the validity of this opportunity within the sports betting market.
2. Analysis
The betting details from two bookmakers are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: Calgary Flames to win
- Odds: -142 (American odds)
- Stake: $589.76
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline
- Outcome: San Jose Sharks to win
- Odds: +145 (American odds)
- Stake: $410.24
To evaluate the arbitrage potential, we will calculate the implied probabilities and the expected returns for each bet.
3. Discussion
Implied Probabilities:
For American odds, the implied probability is calculated as:
- Negative odds: Implied Probability = (-Odds) / (-Odds + 100)
- Positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
Calculations:
Bet 1 (Calgary Flames at -142):
Implied Probability = 142 / (142 + 100) ≈ 58.68%
Bet 2 (San Jose Sharks at +145):
Implied Probability = 100 / (145 + 100) ≈ 40.82%
Total Implied Probability:
Total = 58.68% + 40.82% = 99.5%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this suggests a possible arbitrage betting opportunity.
Potential Returns:
Total Stake: $589.76 + $410.24 = $1,000.00
Scenario 1: Calgary Flames Win
Profit from Bet 1:
Profit = (Stake / -Odds) × 100
Profit = ($589.76 / 142) × 100 ≈ $415.32
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $589.76 + $415.32 = $1,005.08
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stake = $1,005.08 - $1,000.00 = $5.08
Scenario 2: San Jose Sharks Win
Profit from Bet 2:
Profit = (Stake × Odds) / 100
Profit = ($410.24 × 145) / 100 = $594.85
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $410.24 + $594.85 = $1,005.09
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stake = $1,005.09 - $1,000.00 = $5.09
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $5, indicating a possible risk-free return from this arbitrage bet.
4. Conclusion
The examination of the betting odds and stakes indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in this NHL matchup. The implied probabilities sum to less than 100%, and the calculated net profits are positive regardless of the game's outcome. This suggests that, under the current odds and stakes, there is a chance for a positive return in the sports betting market through arbitrage betting.
5. Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their options and conduct their own analysis before making any betting decisions.