NHL Arbitrage on Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets Bet

Introduction

A recently identified arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming NHL game between the Winnipeg Jets and the Ottawa Senators scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis examines the provided betting data to assess the validity and potential profitability of this arbitrage betting opportunity.

Analysis

The proposed arbitrage involves placing bets on both possible outcomes of the game with two different bookmakers:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: BetRivers
• Market: Moneyline (H2H)
• Outcome: Ottawa Senators to win
• Odds: +145 (American odds)
• Stake: $410.24

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Moneyline (H2H)
• Outcome: Winnipeg Jets to win
• Odds: -142 (American odds)
• Stake: $589.76

To facilitate the analysis, American odds are converted to decimal odds:

Ottawa Senators: +145 translates to 2.45 in decimal odds.

Winnipeg Jets: -142 translates to approximately 1.704 in decimal odds.

The implied probabilities are calculated as follows:

• Ottawa Senators: 1 / 2.45 ≈ 40.82%
• Winnipeg Jets: 1 / 1.704 ≈ 58.68%

The total implied probability is approximately 99.5%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market.

Discussion

The calculations suggest a profit regardless of the game's outcome:

If the Ottawa Senators win:

• Payout from BetRivers: $410.24 × 2.45 = $1,004.09
• Net Profit: $1,004.09 - $1,000 = $4.09

If the Winnipeg Jets win:

• Payout from FanDuel: $589.76 × 1.704 ≈ $1,005.00
• Net Profit: $1,005.00 - $1,000 = $5.00

With a total stake of $1,000, the profit ranges from approximately $4.09 to $5.00, representing a net return of 0.41% to 0.50% in this arbitrage betting scenario.

However, several factors must be considered:

• Market Consistency: Ensure that both bookmakers define the market identically, including whether overtime and shootouts are included.
• Event Timing: The game is over a year away, introducing risks such as event postponement or cancellation.
• Bookmaker Terms: Review both bookmakers' terms and conditions regarding bet settlement, cancellations, and maximum payouts.
• Odds Fluctuations: Odds may change, potentially affecting the validity of the arbitrage opportunity.
• Capital Tie-Up: Funds will be tied up for an extended period, affecting liquidity.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that this arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting could yield a small profit due to the discrepancy in odds offered by BetRivers and FanDuel. While mathematically sound, practical considerations and potential risks associated with the long duration until the event warrant careful evaluation. It is important to verify all information and consider the implications before engaging in arbitrage betting on this event.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own evaluation and risk tolerance.