NFL Q3 Arbitrage: Patriots +9.5 vs Chargers -9.5 (ROI: 43.8%)

Introduction

On December 28, 2024, at 1:03 PM, a noteworthy event is scheduled in the NFL between the New England Patriots (Home) and the Los Angeles Chargers (Away). The focus is on the Third Quarter Point Spread market, specifically the spreads_q3. Two distinct bets have been identified from different bookmakers, potentially presenting an arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting.

Analysis

Bet Details:

• Bet 1:
  • Bookmaker: DraftKings
  • Selection: New England Patriots +9.5
  • Odds: +625 (American), which converts to 7.25 in decimal odds
  • Stake: $198.33
• Bet 2:
  • Bookmaker: FanDuel
  • Selection: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5
  • Odds: -126 (American), which converts to approximately 1.7937 in decimal odds
  • Stake: $801.67

Conversion of Odds:

• For positive American odds:
  Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1
  For Bet 1:
  Decimal Odds = (+625 / 100) + 1 = 7.25
• For negative American odds:
  Decimal Odds = (100 / |American Odds|) + 1
  For Bet 2:
  Decimal Odds = (100 / 126) + 1 ≈ 1.7937

Possible Outcomes:

• Outcome 1: Patriots cover the +9.5 spread (win the quarter, tie, or lose by 9 points or fewer).
• Outcome 2: Chargers cover the -9.5 spread (win the quarter by 10 points or more).

Given the half-point spread, a push is not possible; one of the bets will result in a win.

Discussion

Calculating Potential Returns:

For Outcome 1 (Patriots +9.5):

• Winning Bet 1:
  Payout: $198.33 × 7.25 = $1,437.89
  Net Profit from Bet 1: $1,437.89 - $198.33 = $1,239.56
• Losing Bet 2:
  Loss of Stake: $801.67
• Total Net Profit:
  $1,239.56 (Bet 1) - $801.67 (Bet 2) = $437.89

For Outcome 2 (Chargers -9.5):

• Winning Bet 2:
  Payout: $801.67 × 1.7937 ≈ $1,438.00
  Net Profit from Bet 2: $1,438.00 - $801.67 = $636.33
• Losing Bet 1:
  Loss of Stake: $198.33
• Total Net Profit:
  $636.33 (Bet 2) - $198.33 (Bet 1) = $438.00

Implied Probabilities:

• Bet 1 (Patriots +9.5 at 7.25):
  Probability = 1 / 7.25 ≈ 13.793%
• Bet 2 (Chargers -9.5 at 1.7937):
  Probability = 1 / 1.7937 ≈ 55.714%
• Total Probability: 13.793% + 55.714% = 69.507%

The combined probability is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage situation.

Conclusion

The analysis suggests that, based on these bets and odds, there is a scenario where a profit could be realized regardless of the game's outcome for the specific third-quarter point spread market. Both possible outcomes result in a net profit of approximately $438.

It is crucial to ensure that both bets are placed under identical conditions and that all terms and rules are fully understood. Potential risks, such as bet cancellations, different bookmaker rules, or market changes, should be carefully considered.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risks, and it's important to conduct thorough research and consider all factors before making any decisions. No guarantees are made regarding the outcome of the bets or the accuracy of the calculations provided.