NFL Eagles vs Giants Arbitrage: Bet Second Quarter (ROI: 38.1%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NFL match between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants scheduled for January 5, 2025. The bets involve two bookmakers offering different odds on the same market for the second quarter head-to-head outcome.

Analysis

Two bets are placed on the same event and market but with opposing outcomes:

Bet 1: Backing the Philadelphia Eagles to win the second quarter at BetRivers with odds of +140 (decimal odds 2.40) and a stake of $575.22.

Bet 2: Backing the New York Giants to win the second quarter at BetMGM with odds of +225 (decimal odds 3.25) and a stake of $424.78.

Converting the American odds to decimal odds:

- Eagles: (140 + 100) / 100 = 2.40
- Giants: (225 + 100) / 100 = 3.25

The implied probabilities for each outcome are:

- Eagles: 1 / 2.40 ≈ 41.67%
- Giants: 1 / 3.25 ≈ 30.77%

The sum of the implied probabilities is approximately 72.44%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage scenario.

Discussion

To verify the arbitrage opportunity, we calculate the inverse of the decimal odds and confirm that their sum is less than 1:

1 / 2.40 + 1 / 3.25 ≈ 0.4167 + 0.3077 = 0.7244

Since 0.7244 is less than 1, this suggests a potential arbitrage.

Allocating stakes proportionally ensures equal potential returns regardless of the outcome:

- Total Stake: $575.22 + $424.78 = $1,000
- Proportion on Eagles: (1 / 2.40) / 0.7244 ≈ 57.54%
- Proportion on Giants: (1 / 3.25) / 0.7244 ≈ 42.46%

Potential returns are calculated as:

- If Eagles win: $575.22 x 2.40 = $1,380.53
- If Giants win: $424.78 x 3.25 = $1,380.54

Subtracting the total stake from the returns provides potential profits of approximately $380.53 to $380.54, regardless of the outcome.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that the difference in odds provided by BetRivers and BetMGM creates an arbitrage opportunity for the second quarter outcome of the Eagles vs. Giants game. By strategically allocating stakes, there is a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the game's result in the specified market.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risks, and individuals should consider these risks carefully before engaging in any betting activities. We do not guarantee any outcomes, and past analysis is not indicative of future results. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations regarding sports betting.