NFL Betting Odds Arbitrage: Patriots vs. Chargers (ROI: 61.0%)

Introduction

A potential arbitrage opportunity has been identified for the upcoming NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves placing opposing bets on specific spreads with two different sportsbooks, which could result in a guaranteed profit regardless of the game's outcome. This memo provides a detailed analysis of this sports betting scenario.

Analysis

The arbitrage betting opportunity involves the following two bets:

Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Los Angeles Chargers -32.5
- Odds: +310
- Stake: $392.59

Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Standard Spreads
- Outcome: New England Patriots +32.5
- Odds: +165
- Stake: $607.41

These bets cover all possible outcomes of the game's point spread:

• Bet 1 wins if the Chargers win by 33 points or more.
• Bet 2 wins if the Patriots win the game or lose by 32 points or fewer.

Since a football game cannot have half-point outcomes, one of these bets will invariably win, providing a potential arbitrage betting opportunity.

Discussion

Scenario 1: Chargers Win by 33 Points or More

Bet 1 Wins:
- Profit: $392.59 × (310/100) = $1,216.03
- Total Return: $392.59 (Stake) + $1,216.03 (Profit) = $1,608.62

Bet 2 Loses:
- Loss: $607.41

Net Profit:
- Total Stakes: $392.59 + $607.41 = $1,000
- Net Profit: $1,608.62 (Return) - $1,000 (Stakes) = $608.62

Scenario 2: Patriots Win or Lose by 32 Points or Fewer

Bet 2 Wins:
- Profit: $607.41 × (165/100) = $1,002.23
- Total Return: $607.41 (Stake) + $1,002.23 (Profit) = $1,609.64

Bet 1 Loses:
- Loss: $392.59

Net Profit:
- Total Stakes: $607.41 + $392.59 = $1,000
- Net Profit: $1,609.64 (Return) - $1,000 (Stakes) = $609.64

In both scenarios, the total stakes amount to $1,000, and the net profit is approximately $608 to $610, regardless of the game's outcome. This suggests that the odds and stakes create a situation where arbitrage betting could potentially yield a profit.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that the differing odds and spreads offered by DraftKings and BetMGM create a possible arbitrage betting opportunity on this NFL game. By strategically placing bets on both outcomes, there is a potential to secure a profit due to the guaranteed nature of one bet winning. This is a classic example of how arbitrage betting can be utilized in sports betting to mitigate risks and capitalize on market discrepancies.

It is important to carefully consider factors such as:

• Odds Confirmation: Ensuring that the odds are accurate and current at the time of placing bets.
• Stake Limits: Verifying that the bookmakers allow the specified stakes for these bets.
• Terms and Conditions: Reviewing the bookmakers' rules regarding bet acceptance and potential voiding of bets.
• Market Volatility: Being aware that odds can change rapidly, which may affect the viability of the arbitrage opportunity.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution before engaging in any betting activities.