NFL Betting Arbitrage: Vikings vs. Packers Opportunity (ROI: 100.4%)
(ROI: 100.4%) NFL game potential arbitrage: original stakes $392.86 Vikings, $607.14 Packers not risk-free. Adjust stakes to $219.43 Vikings, $780.57 Packers for guaranteed profit.
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the upcoming NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers scheduled for December 29, 2024. Two separate bets have been placed with different bookmakers, each offering distinct odds for the respective teams.
Analysis
The two bets in question are as follows:
Bet 1:
• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Outcome: Minnesota Vikings to win
• Odds: +410 (American odds format)
• Stake: $392.86
Bet 2:
• Bookmaker: BetRivers
• Outcome: Green Bay Packers to win
• Odds: -230 (American odds format)
• Stake: $607.14
To assess the validity of this arbitrage opportunity, we first convert the American odds to decimal odds for ease of calculation:
• For odds of +410:
Decimal Odds = (410 / 100) + 1 = 5.10
• For odds of -230:
Decimal Odds = (100 / 230) + 1 ≈ 1.4348
Next, we calculate the potential payouts for each bet:
If the Vikings win:
• Payout from Bet 1: $392.86 × 5.10 = $2,003.69
• Loss from Bet 2: -$607.14
• Net Profit: $2,003.69 - $607.14 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $396.55
If the Packers win:
• Payout from Bet 2: $607.14 × 1.4348 = $871.43
• Loss from Bet 1: -$392.86
• Net Profit: $871.43 - $392.86 - $1,000 (total stakes) = -$521.43
Discussion
The calculations reveal a significant discrepancy in potential outcomes. If the Vikings win, there is a profit of $396.55, but if the Packers win, there is a loss of $521.43. An authentic arbitrage opportunity should guarantee a profit regardless of the event's outcome by exploiting discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers.
To further analyze, we calculate the implied probabilities:
• Implied Probability for Vikings: 1 / 5.10 ≈ 19.61%
• Implied Probability for Packers: 1 / 1.4348 ≈ 69.70%
• Total Implied Probability: 19.61% + 69.70% = 89.31%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, which suggests a potential arbitrage situation. However, the stakes need to be optimally allocated to ensure equal payouts and a guaranteed profit.
Calculating the optimal stakes:
• Total Inverse Odds: (1 / 5.10) + (1 / 1.4348) = 0.1961 + 0.6969 = 0.8930
• Proportional Stake on Vikings: (0.1961 / 0.8930) × $1,000 ≈ $219.43
• Proportional Stake on Packers: (0.6969 / 0.8930) × $1,000 ≈ $780.57
With these adjusted stakes:
• Potential Payout if Vikings Win: $219.43 × 5.10 = $1,118.09
• Potential Payout if Packers Win: $780.57 × 1.4348 = $1,118.09
• Guaranteed Profit: $1,118.09 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $118.09
Conclusion
The initial stakes of $392.86 on the Vikings and $607.14 on the Packers do not constitute a valid and risk-free arbitrage bet due to the imbalance in potential outcomes. Adjusting the stakes to approximately $219.43 on the Vikings and $780.57 on the Packers would create equal potential payouts, establishing a legitimate arbitrage opportunity with a guaranteed profit.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any betting decisions.