NFL Arbitrage Opportunity: Aaron Jones Reception Prop (ROI: 1.3%)
(ROI: 1.3%) Arbitrage opportunity on Aaron Jones' receptions in Lions vs. Vikings game. FanDuel has odds -128 over 2.5, BetMGM +135 under 2.5. Total stakes $1,000, possible profit $13.23, 1.323% ROI.
Introduction
An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified between FanDuel and BetMGM on Aaron Jones' player reception prop in the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings scheduled for January 6, 2025. This opportunity arises due to differing odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same event, potentially allowing for a risk-free profit.
Analysis
Below are the details of the identified bets:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Over 2.5 receptions for Aaron Jones
- Odds: -128 (American odds)
- Stake: $568.84
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Under 2.5 receptions for Aaron Jones
- Odds: +135 (American odds)
- Stake: $431.16
To assess the potential profit, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- FanDuel Odds: 1.78125
- BetMGM Odds: 2.35
The total stake across both bets is $1,000 ($568.84 + $431.16). The possible outcomes are:
Scenario 1: Over 2.5 Receptions
- Payout from FanDuel: $568.84 × 1.78125 = $1,013.23
- Total Return: $1,013.23
- Profit: $1,013.23 - $1,000 = $13.23
Scenario 2: Under 2.5 Receptions
- Payout from BetMGM: $431.16 × 2.35 = $1,013.23
- Total Return: $1,013.23
- Profit: $1,013.23 - $1,000 = $13.23
This results in a consistent profit of $13.23 regardless of the outcome, representing a 1.323% return on investment (ROI).
Discussion
While the calculations suggest a guaranteed profit, several factors should be considered:
Player Participation: If Aaron Jones does not participate in the game, bookmakers may have different policies on voiding bets, potentially affecting the arbitrage.
Bookmaker Rules: Differences in terms and conditions between FanDuel and BetMGM could impact bet settlement, especially concerning statistical definitions and overtime inclusion.
Odds Fluctuations: Odds may change before bets are executed, which can eliminate the arbitrage opportunity. Prompt action is necessary to secure the current odds.
Betting Limits: High wagers on specific markets may trigger betting limits or account reviews by bookmakers, potentially restricting bet placement.
Time Horizon: With the event over a year away, there is increased uncertainty due to potential injuries, trades, or changes in team dynamics.
Conclusion
The identified arbitrage betting opportunity offers a potential profit by exploiting the odds discrepancy between two bookmakers on Aaron Jones' receptions. While the mathematical calculations indicate a positive ROI, it is crucial to consider the associated risks, including player participation uncertainties and bookmaker policies. Thorough due diligence is recommended to ensure that the opportunity aligns with individual betting strategies and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should assess their own circumstances and consult with professionals if necessary. Always gamble responsibly and adhere to local laws and regulations.