NFL Arbitrage: Eagles vs Giants Spread (ROI: 3.4%)
(ROI: 3.4%) Arbitrage bet on NFL game: Stake $574.47 on Giants +10.5 at -125 odds, $425.53 on Eagles -10.5 at +143 odds. Guaranteed $33.14 net profit.
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants. This situation involves placing opposing bets on the alternate point spread offered by two different sportsbooks.
Analysis
The first bet is on the New York Giants at a +10.5 point spread with odds of -125 through DraftKings, staking $574.47. The second bet is on the Philadelphia Eagles at a -10.5 point spread with odds of +143 via BetRivers, staking $425.53.
Converting these American odds to decimal odds simplifies the calculation of potential returns. The Giants' odds of -125 convert to 1.80, while the Eagles' odds of +143 convert to 2.43.
Calculating the potential payouts:
- If the Giants cover the spread: $574.47 x 1.80 = $1,033.14
- If the Eagles cover the spread: $425.53 x 2.43 = $1,033.14
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000 ($574.47 + $425.53).
Discussion
There are two possible outcomes based on the point spread:
- Giants Cover the Spread: The Giants win the game or lose by 10 points or fewer. In this case, the first bet wins, and the second bet loses, resulting in a payout of $1,033.14 from the first bet.
- Eagles Cover the Spread: The Eagles win by 11 points or more. Here, the second bet wins while the first bet loses, also yielding a payout of $1,033.14 from the second bet.
In both scenarios, the bettor receives the same payout, leading to a net profit of $33.14 after subtracting the total stakes ($1,033.14 - $1,000).
To assess the validity of this arbitrage betting opportunity, the implied probabilities are calculated:
- Giants Bet Implied Probability: 55.56%
- Eagles Bet Implied Probability: 41.15%
The sum of these probabilities is 96.71%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage situation in sports betting.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that this arbitrage betting opportunity may allow for a profit regardless of the game's outcome due to the differences in odds offered by the two sportsbooks. This example illustrates how arbitrage betting can potentially be utilized within the sports betting market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should exercise caution and conduct their own research before engaging in any betting activities.