NFL 4th Quarter Spread Arbitrage Opportunity: Chargers vs. Patriots (ROI: 13.4%)
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers on December 28, 2024. The opportunity involves placing bets on the fourth quarter spread across two different bookmakers, DraftKings and BetRivers.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: 4th Quarter Spread
- Selection: Los Angeles Chargers -7.5
- Odds: +280 (Decimal Odds: 3.80)
- Stake: $298.54
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: 4th Quarter Spread
- Selection: New England Patriots +7.5
- Odds: -162 (Decimal Odds: 1.617)
- Stake: $701.46
Conversion of Odds:
To accurately assess potential returns, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
- Chargers: ( +280 / 100 ) + 1 = 3.80
- Patriots: ( 100 / 162 ) + 1 ≈ 1.617
Total Stakes: $298.54 (Bet 1) + $701.46 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Potential Returns and Profits:
- If Bet 1 Wins:
- Return: $298.54 × 3.80 = $1,134.45
- Profit: $1,134.45 - $1,000 = $134.45
- If Bet 2 Wins:
- Return: $701.46 × 1.617 = $1,135.46
- Profit: $1,135.46 - $1,000 = $135.46
Discussion
This setup suggests that, regardless of the outcome of the fourth quarter, there is a potential profit margin of approximately $134 to $135. The calculations show that the stakes are proportionally balanced based on the inverse of the decimal odds to equalize potential returns.
Possible Outcomes:
- Scenario 1: The Los Angeles Chargers win the fourth quarter by 8 or more points. Bet 1 wins, and Bet 2 loses. Net profit: Approximately $134.45.
- Scenario 2: The Chargers win the fourth quarter by 7 or fewer points, tie, or lose the quarter. Bet 2 wins, and Bet 1 loses. Net profit: Approximately $135.46.
Considerations:
- Rule Consistency: It's important to ensure that both bookmakers have identical rules for the fourth quarter spread market, including how overtime is handled.
- Bet Settlement: Verifying that there are no betting limits or maximum payouts that could impact potential returns is crucial.
- Risk Factors: External factors such as match cancellations or voided bets could affect the outcome of the arbitrage opportunity.
- Account Policies: Be mindful that frequent arbitrage betting may lead to account restrictions with some bookmakers.
Conclusion
The analysis presents a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the fourth quarter spread market for the specified NFL game. By strategically allocating stakes across two bookmakers, there appears to be a chance to achieve a profit regardless of the game's outcome in that quarter. It's essential to thoroughly review all terms and conditions and consider any factors that may influence bet settlements.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation. Always conduct personal due diligence and consult the terms provided by betting operators before engaging in any betting activities.