New Mexico vs Colorado State Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 15.3%)
Introduction
A recent opportunity in sports betting has presented an arbitrage betting scenario involving the college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the Colorado State Rams. This analysis explores the details of this potential arbitrage bet, examining the stakes, odds, and potential outcomes.
Analysis
The arbitrage bet involves two separate wagers placed on different outcomes of the same event:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Spreads
- Outcome: New Mexico Lobos -12.5
- Odds: +104 (American odds)
- Stake: $565.03
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Colorado State Rams +12.5
- Odds: +165 (American odds)
- Stake: $434.97
To facilitate the calculation, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
Bet 1 Decimal Odds: ((104 / 100) + 1) = 2.04
Bet 2 Decimal Odds: ((165 / 100) + 1) = 2.65
Potential payouts for each bet are calculated as follows:
If New Mexico covers the -12.5 spread:
- Payout from Bet 1: $565.03 x 2.04 = $1,152.66
- Loss from Bet 2: -$434.97
- Net Profit: $1,152.66 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $152.66
If Colorado State covers the +12.5 spread:
- Payout from Bet 2: $434.97 x 2.65 = $1,152.67
- Loss from Bet 1: -$565.03
- Net Profit: $1,152.67 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $152.67
Discussion
The calculations indicate a net profit in both scenarios, suggesting a potential arbitrage opportunity. The stakes are proportionally allocated based on the odds to balance the payouts:
Stake on Bet 1 (S1): $565.03
Stake on Bet 2 (S2): $434.97
The stakes satisfy the equation S1 + S2 = $1,000, and the payouts from both bets are nearly identical, ensuring consistent potential returns irrespective of the game's outcome.
Conclusion
This analysis demonstrates a scenario where an arbitrage betting opportunity may exist between two bookmakers offering differing odds on the same event. By placing calculated stakes on opposing outcomes, there is an indication of a net profit regardless of which team covers the spread. This example highlights how discrepancies in betting markets can be analyzed for potential arbitrage.
Disclaimer
This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise caution and conduct their own research before making any decisions.