Nebraska vs Boston College Betting Arbitrage Analysis (ROI: 57.8%)

Introduction

The following analysis examines a betting opportunity in the college football game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Boston College Eagles, scheduled for December 28, 2024. The focus is on the alternate totals market, specifically betting on whether the total points scored will be over or under 29.5. Two different bookmakers, DraftKings and BetMGM, offer differing odds on this market, presenting a potential arbitrage betting scenario.

Analysis

Bet Details:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Total Points Under 29.5
• Odds: +280 (American odds)
• Stake: $415.38

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Total Points Over 29.5
• Odds: -170 (American odds)
• Stake: $584.62

To determine the viability of a risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity, we need to analyze the potential outcomes and calculate the net profit or loss for each scenario.

Conversion of Odds:

American odds are converted to decimal odds for easier calculation:

• Bet 1 (+280): Decimal Odds = (280 / 100) + 1 = 3.80
• Bet 2 (-170): Decimal Odds = (-100 / -170) + 1 ≈ 1.5882

Discussion

Scenario 1: Total Points Under 29.5

• Return from Bet 1: $415.38 x 3.80 = $1,578.44
• Profit from Bet 1: $1,578.44 - $415.38 = $1,163.06
• Loss from Bet 2: -$584.62 (stake lost)
• Net Profit: $1,163.06 - $584.62 = $578.44

Scenario 2: Total Points Over 29.5

• Return from Bet 2: $584.62 x 1.5882 ≈ $928.26
• Profit from Bet 2: $928.26 - $584.62 = $343.64
• Loss from Bet 1: -$415.38 (stake lost)
• Net Loss: $343.64 - $415.38 = -$71.74

In this betting combination:

• A profit of $578.44 occurs if the total points are under 29.5.
• A loss of $71.74 occurs if the total points are over 29.5.

Implied Probabilities:

• Bet 1 (+280): Implied Probability = 100 / (280 + 100) ≈ 26.32%
• Bet 2 (-170): Implied Probability = 170 / (170 + 100) ≈ 62.96%
• Total Implied Probability: 26.32% + 62.96% = 89.28%

The total implied probability is less than 100%, which typically indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. However, the calculated net loss in one of the scenarios suggests otherwise.

Conclusion

After thorough analysis, this combination of bets does not represent a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Despite the total implied probability being less than 100%, the net outcomes show a potential loss in one scenario. The key characteristic of arbitrage betting is the guarantee of profit regardless of the event outcome. In this case, the possibility of a $71.74 loss means the bets carry inherent risk.

To create a true arbitrage situation, adjustments to the stake amounts or seeking better odds would be necessary. Bettors should carefully evaluate all variables, including stake sizes, odds, and bookmaker terms, to ensure a betting strategy aligns with arbitrage betting principles.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Betting involves financial risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution when engaging in sports betting activities.