NCAAF TCU vs. Louisiana Primer: $205 Arbitrage Angle (ROI: 20.5%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged in the upcoming NCAAF game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. The event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:25 PM. This analysis explores the details of the bets and evaluates whether a risk-free profit can be achieved through arbitrage betting strategies.
Analysis
Event Details:
Teams: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 2:25 PM
League: NCAAF
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Spreads
Outcome: TCU Horned Frogs -38.5
Odds: +320
Stake: $286.89
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Alternate Spreads
Outcome: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +38.5
Odds: -145
Stake: $713.11
1. Understanding the Bets
- Bet 1: Wagering that TCU will win by more than 38.5 points (i.e., 39 points or more).
- Bet 2: Wagering that Louisiana will lose by less than 38.5 points (i.e., 38 points or fewer) or win the game.
Since the point spread includes a half-point, there is no possibility of a tie. One of these bets will result in a win, and the other will result in a loss.
2. Converting Odds to Decimal Format
- Positive American Odds to Decimal: (Odds / 100) + 1
- Negative American Odds to Decimal: (100 / -Odds) + 1
- Bet 1 (Odds +320): (320 / 100) + 1 = 4.20
- Bet 2 (Odds -145): (100 / 145) + 1 ≈ 1.6897
3. Calculating Potential Returns
- Bet 1 Potential Return: $286.89 × 4.20 = $1,205.34
- Bet 2 Potential Return: $713.11 × 1.6897 ≈ $1,205.17
4. Total Stakes
- Total Investment: $286.89 (Bet 1) + $713.11 (Bet 2) = $1,000
5. Possible Outcomes and Net Profit
Scenario 1: TCU wins by 39 points or more.
- Bet 1 wins: Receive $1,205.34.
- Bet 2 loses: Lose $713.11.
- Net Profit: $1,205.34 - $1,000 = $205.34
Scenario 2: TCU wins by 38 points or fewer, or Louisiana wins.
- Bet 2 wins: Receive $1,205.17.
- Bet 1 loses: Lose $286.89.
- Net Profit: $1,205.17 - $1,000 = $205.17
6. Arbitrage Calculation
Arbitrage Percentage = (1 / Decimal Odds of Bet 1) + (1 / Decimal Odds of Bet 2)
Arbitrage Percentage = (1 / 4.20) + (1 / 1.6897) ≈ 0.2381 + 0.5920 = 0.8301 (or 83.01%)
Since 83.01% is less than 100%, this indicates a profitable arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
The calculations suggest that placing these two bets covers all possible outcomes, ensuring a profit regardless of the game's result. The arbitrage percentage of 83.01% confirms that the combined bets are favorable for an arbitrage betting strategy.
Key considerations include:
- Risk Management: While the theoretical profit is calculated, real-world factors such as bet acceptance, limits, and potential changes in odds may impact the actual outcome.
- Timing: Odds can fluctuate, so timely action is essential to lock in the calculated arbitrage opportunity.
- Compliance: It's important to ensure that all betting activities comply with local laws and the terms and conditions of the bookmakers involved.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the NCAAF game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. By carefully placing the specified bets, there is a possibility of achieving a net profit of approximately $205 on a $1,000 total stake. This represents an estimated return on investment of around 20.5%, which is noteworthy in sports betting and arbitrage betting contexts.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Individuals should conduct their own research and consider seeking advice from professional advisors before engaging in any betting activities.