NCAAF Navy vs Oklahoma Arbitrage Alert
Introduction
An arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified for the upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners, scheduled for December 27, 2024, at 12:05 PM. This analysis aims to objectively assess the viability of this sports betting scenario.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Head-to-Head (Moneyline)
- Team: Navy Midshipmen
- Odds: +680
- Stake: $128.87
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Head-to-Head (Moneyline)
- Team: Oklahoma Sooners
- Odds: -650
- Stake: $871.13
Total Stake: $1,000
Calculations:
Scenario 1: Navy Midshipmen Win
- Convert odds of +680 to decimal odds: (680 / 100) + 1 = 7.80
- Potential Return: $128.87 × 7.80 = $1,005.186
- Net Profit: $1,005.186 - $1,000 = $5.19
Scenario 2: Oklahoma Sooners Win
- Convert odds of -650 to decimal odds: (100 / 650) + 1 ≈ 1.1538
- Potential Return: $871.13 × 1.1538 ≈ $1,005.17
- Net Profit: $1,005.17 - $1,000 = $5.17
Discussion
The calculations suggest that a profit of approximately $5.17 to $5.19 is achievable regardless of the game's outcome, indicating a potential arbitrage betting opportunity. This arises because the combined implied probabilities from both bets are less than 100%, allowing bettors to cover all outcomes and secure a net gain.
However, several factors should be carefully considered:
1. Timing and Odds Fluctuation: Odds in sports betting can change rapidly. It is essential to place both bets simultaneously to lock in the stated odds. Any delay might result in odds shifts that could eliminate the arbitrage margin.
2. Market Consistency: Ensure both bookmakers are offering bets on the same market with identical conditions, such as including overtime and accounting for possible draws. Discrepancies in market terms can affect the outcome.
3. Event Timing Risks: The event is scheduled over a year in the future. There is an increased risk of event cancellation, postponement, or significant changes in team composition, which could lead to bets being voided or adjusted.
4. Bookmaker Policies: Different bookmakers have varying rules regarding bet limits, odds acceptance, and arbitrage betting. It is important to review each bookmaker's terms and conditions to ensure compliance and to confirm that the stakes will be accepted.
5. Transaction Costs and Fees: Consider any potential transaction fees, withdrawal charges, or currency exchange costs that could reduce the overall profit. These expenses might impact the net gain from the arbitrage opportunity.
Conclusion
While the numerical analysis indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in this sports betting scenario, it is important to acknowledge the external factors that may affect the actual realization of the profit. The small profit margin, combined with the long duration until the event, introduces risks that warrant careful consideration. An objective evaluation of these factors is essential before making any betting decisions.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as betting advice or a recommendation. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should engage in betting activities responsibly and at their own discretion.